Tuesday, July 6, 2010

What Is Going To Happen In Afghanistan?

U.S. Army soldiers begin a descent while on patrol in Zabul province, Afghanistan, June 25, 2010. U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. William Tremblay

Afghanistan is now America's longest war .... and it shows no signs of ending .... in fact .... it is getting worse. With a belief that God is supporting their cause, the Taliban have now recruited a significant force that is fighting a war that is based on a religious conviction (jihad) that we in the West cannot even hope to counter.

Long time readers of this blog know that while I have always been supportive of the U.S. and its allies in Afghanistan, I am deeply skeptical of any success in this conflict. We have as our Afghan allies in this conflict a dysfunctional and corrupt central government, a dysfunctional (for the most part) Afghan security force, and a population that is neutral with our presence in the country (at best), or openly hostile at worse. Coupled this with safe havens in Pakistan's tribal regions, the Taliban have a human resource pool of willing and able fighters at their disposal that can easily replace the hundreds of commanders and soldiers that are killed every month by U.S./allied forces.

What is also a worrisome trend is that the Taliban now believe that they are going to ultimately win this war, a perception that has been reinforced by many of our allies making plans to quickly leave the country within a year (Canada, the Netherlands, etc.), and even more later on (Great Britain, France, and probably Germany).

But the coup de grace has been President Obama's own commitment to draw down U.S. military involvement starting next year .... even though U.S. military commanders have been insistent that any drawdown will be determined by conditions on the ground. This one policy anouncement has caused irreperable harm to the allied cause in Afghanistan, and regardless of what President Obama may say in the future .... the message is clear .... the Americans political establishment is now contemplating and making plans to leave.

My prediction .... with a stagnant economy and an unwinnable war strategy in place, U.S. forces will start to depart en masse before the 2012 elections .... a withdrawal that will accelerate even further if some elements of the Taliban can be convinced to put down their weapons and reach a political compromise with the Afghan government.

But like the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988, the dye is already in cast .... with only a semi-functional Afghan military and a few outside military advisers in front of their eventual domination of Afghanistan, the Taliban will be successful in conquering and governing much of Afghanistan by 2015 .... if not sooner.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

It is also a symptom of "mission creep." It went from dismantling Al Qaeda and capturing bin Laden, to WMD's in Iraq, to Freedom for Iraqis, to Enduring Freedom, to Freedom for Afghanis, and now Defeat The Taliban...all while our enemy is in Northern Pakistan, where we are not. How did we lose sight of the original basic mission: destroy Al Qaeda?

Anonymous said...

I agree with comment above...blame Obama if you will but we have no business being involved in a civil war...how many Al Qaeda in Afghanistan? precious few (they are in Pakistan)...and we have opium, warring warlords and sectional factions, muslims who want sharia law and corrup govt and ill trained native forces.
WHY ARE WE THERE? WHAT IS OUR GOAL?

Anonymous said...

How did we lose sight of the original basic mission: destroy Al Qaeda? Because Al Qaeda is in fact Al-CIADA and 9/11 was an inside job wall to wall...

Anonymous said...

Jewelry sequence by [B][URL=http://www.salethomassabo.com/thomas-sabo-halsschmuck.html]Thomas Sabo Schmuck[/URL][/B] arrive from Germany, sticking to the exceptional concepts of pattern to acquire small, fashionable silver products for all people. Silver offered by [B]Thomas Sabo schmuck[/B] him contains bracelet that are colorful, exquisite design and style rings, bold and stylish pendants, and a variety of other range of silver. Not only this, [B][URL=http://www.salethomassabo.com]Thomas Sabo[/URL][/B] another series with classic pattern is full of type which can fit any occasion. It makes use of appealing way from the build up lines to interpret lovely fashion to [B]Thomas Sabo[/B] make a mark within the hearts of several youthful girls.

The Rebel at Heart sequence consists of Black [B][URL=http://www.salethomassabo.com]Thomas Sabo[/URL][/B] Raven sequence under it and this series demonstrate 3 elements [B]Thomas Sabo charms[/B] mystery, and drama fiercely and stylishly.

You'll be amazed to know that [B][URL=http://www.salethomassabo.com/thomas-sabo-halsschmuck.html]Thomas Sabo Schmuck[/URL][/B] has presented even one thing for sports lovers. Series of Sporting activities [B]Thomas Sabo onlineshop[/B] is big and can surely tickle sports fans. The sports charms are also [B]Thomas Sabo[/B] out of sterling silver that is bound to maintain any sports activities athlete shining with confidence.

Anonymous said...

[B][URL=http://www.thomassabosale.de]Thomas Sabo onlineshop[/URL][/B] [B]Thomas Sabo[/B] [U]Thomas Sabo onlineshop[/U] [B]masai[/B] [U]masai[/U] [B][URL=http://www.mbtschuheoutlet.de]masai schuhe[/URL][/B]

[B]Thomas Sabo charms[/B] [B][URL=http://www.thomassabosale.de]Thomas Sabo[/URL][/B] [U]Thomas Sabo onlineshop[/U] abercormbie fitch [B]masai footwear[/B] [B][URL=http://www.mbtschuheoutlet.de]mtb masai[/URL][/B] [U]masai shoes[/U] vibram five fingers [B]Thomas Sabo onlineshop[/B] [B][URL=http://www.salethomassabo.com]Thomas Sabo charms[/URL][/B] [U]Thomas Sabo charms[/U] swiss masai [B]vibram five fingers kso[/B] [B][URL=http://www.vibramfivefingersshop.de]vibram[/URL][/B] [U]vibram five fingers kso[/U] Thomas Sabo charms [B]abercrombie and fitch[/B] [B][URL=http://www.abercrombieonsale.de]abercormbie & fitch[/URL][/B] [U]abercrombie and fitch[/U]

[B]abercrombie[/B] [U]abercormbie & fitch[/U] [B][URL=http://www.abercrombieonsale.de]abercormbie & fitch[/URL][/B] [B][URL=http://www.mbtschuheoutlet.de]mbt[/URL][/B] [B]mbt[/B] [U]mbt schuhe[/U] [B][URL=http://www.thomassabosale.de]Thomas Sabo onlineshop[/URL][/B] [B]Thomas Sabo onlineshop[/B] [U]Thomas Sabo onlineshop[/U] [B]swiss masai[/B] [U]swiss masai[/U] [B][URL=http://www.mbtschuheoutlet.de]masai barefoot[/URL][/B]