Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Russia Will Not Invade Ukraine

No, Russia Will Not Intervene in Ukraine -- Simon Shuster, Time

Moscow will be content to watch Ukraine's new revolutionary leaders succumb to factional infighting and the pressures of the country's basket-case economy

Vladimir Putin has been here before. A decade ago, when he was starting his second term as Russia’s President, a popular uprising broke out in Ukraine. It took no more than a few weeks to break the bond of centuries between the two biggest countries in Eastern Europe. The current revolution in Ukraine looks very different. Unlike the peaceful Orange Revolution, this one has been violent and has dragged on for months. But the questions it has forced Russia to ask are much the same: To what extent should we intervene? When do we cut our losses and accept Ukraine’s drift toward the West? What would we gain, and what would we risk, from using our military to regain control?

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My Comment: This is a good analysis by Simon Shuster .... and he is right .... Russia is not going to invade Ukraine. Russia will influence Ukraine via through economics/trade/and financial aid. The only circumstances that would entail such an action (Russian invasion) is if Ukraine collapses into a failed state .... and the Russian community becomes targeted by violent Ukrainian nationalist factions that results in a civil war. I call this Russia's (and Ukraine's) worst nightmare.

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