An armed man stands guard as people wait for humanitarian medical aid near the mayor's office in Slaviansk July 9, 2014. Credit: Reuters/Gleb Garanich
More Ukrainian Soldiers Killed; France, Germany Press Putin -- Reuters
(Reuters) - Ukrainian forces regained more ground but sustained further casualties on Thursday in clashes with separatists, while two Western allies urged Russia's Vladimir Putin to exert more pressure on the rebels to find a negotiated end to the conflict.
Government forces have recently gained the upper hand in the three-month conflict against separatists in the Russian-speaking eastern regions in which more than 200 government troops have been killed as well as hundreds of civilians and rebel fighters.
The Ukrainian military says it has a plan to deliver a "nasty surprise" to the heavily-armed separatists who have dug in Donetsk, a city of 900,000 people, after being pushed out of their bastion in Slaviansk at the weekend.
Read more ....
My Comment: I traveled through this area of Ukraine a few times about a decade ago and I am very familiar with the geography .... it is the perfect place for partisan/guerrilla warfare. It is also predominantly Russian .... and after what has happened in the past two months .... I have been told that no one in this part of the country has any positive feelings towards Kiev. France and Germany can press Putin all that they want .... but on the ground in this part of Ukraine .... Putin has minimal if any influence.
My prediction still holds that Ukraine military/militia forces will lay siege to the large cities of Donestk and Luhansk in the hope that after 2 - 3 months the morale among the rebel fighters will be low, and the civilian population who are trapped will be "fed-up" with the fighting and will welcome any Ukraine military intervention .... and while this is what the Ukraine leadership are planning .... I am expecting the opposite to occur. The Ukraine military will eventually storm the cities .... probably at the end of summer .... and I expect heavy casualties .... a few hundred Ukrainian soldiers killed, and on the other side a few thousand civilians and rebels killed. But instead of buying a victory and peace .... Kiev will have resentment and anger with a lingering hatred that will take generations to overcome .... and the fighting will still continue (albeit on a low intensity level.) .... especially since it is now a given that the Ukraine government will be forced to deploy military and militia forces on a permanent basis throughout this region.
Today's hit and run attacks .... and the use of an IED that killed two Ukrainian soldiers and injured scores of others .... is just a taste of what is about to come. And while I think ... correction .... I know that Kiev and the West are hoping that this conflict will be wrapped up by winter .... everyone that I know who lives there and/or has lived there are telling me the exact opposite .... that the long fight is about to begin.
Update: Ukraine Interior Ministry forecasts army operation to end within a month -- ITAR-TASS
Update #2: Donetsk Primed for Siege as Ukraine Army Hems In Rebels -- Bloomberg
16 comments:
IF THEY CAN KEEP OUT THE NAZIS FROM WW2 THEY CAN DO THE SAME AGAIN IVE JUST SEEN A VIDEO FROM KRAMORTOSK AND UNIDENTIFIED ARMED KIEV TROOPS WHERE PUSHED OUT BY RESIENTS CAME FROM BLOG OF THE SAKER .IE WHAT ARE YOUR TAUGHTS ON COLONEL STRELKOV MIGHTLY IMPRESSIVE SOLDIER I THINK TO GET ALMOST ALL HID TROOPS OUT ALIVE AND FAMILIES UNDER SEIGE AT THAT TOWN
I suppose it is too late for a plebiscite?
If Ukraine becomes a rump state which I believe that it probable, will Putin still go after it (long term) for more?
Putin has some (but not much) influence on pro-Russian rebels. If history of this region is any indication .... the pro-Russian population will act according to what is their best interest .... and will not listen to what Kiev or Moscow on what to do.
I have read that Strekov the seperatist commander that was in Sloviansk has issued a mobilsation order. If you dont join their army you will be exsecuted. I think it was how the order sounded. How will the civilians in Donbass react to this or is it somply western propaganda?
"the pro-Russian population will act according to what is their best interest"
What is their best interest. I would assume part of it would be to be a citizen of a prosperous country and partake of the prosperity.
Another interest is to promote your language and culture. A person could promote your mother tongue without necessarily living in a country made up of speakers of your mother tongue.
Living in a country where the official language is not your mother tongue makes it hard to maintain it. But merely being hard to maintain a second language is not discrimination.
Russia has a declining population of Russian speakers. Would the ethnic Russians be better off in Russia than Ukraine?
This situation would have been better if the borders had been drawn more in line with Wilsonian principles I think. Not that I have much use for President Woodrow Wilson.
Maybe a plebiscite would be better than low intensity warfare. But arranging such a vote would be political suicide.
Strekov is one of about 30 to 40 militia leaders .... his influence is limited to his group. As to getting out of Sloviansk .... the Ukraine Army was too slow .... he took advantage of that delay to get him and his men out.
"What is their interest" .... I have had that debate with family and friends in both Russia and Ukraine for years .... if not decades. Language and culture is a big one .... but political factors are also involved. One big problem that I have always complained about (in both Ukraine and Russia) is the centralization of power into the hands of the federal government. Both Kiev and Moscow have too much of it, and the outlying regions are getting tired of listening to and/or being told by authorities hundreds if not thousands of kilometers away on what is best for them. In the case of Ukraine .... if Poroshenko offered a form of autonomy and decentralization .... most in eastern Ukraine would accept it, and the separatist fires would start to die. But he will not .... and that is the crux of the problem. Now is the golden time for compromise and accommodation .... but Kiev has chosen the gun and a different course of action.
1. Ok is it so many militia leaders. That wil be problems for Kiev when they storm the city. If they have got rid of some of the leaders they stil have to deal with other brances that can fight a partisan war. Strekov did indeed get his men out of Sloviansk but why did he leave most of the weapons and all the tanks back in Sloviansk?
2. In most media its portrayed that the civilian population in Donetsk, Sloviansk and Lugansk sees the pro-Russians as bandits and they want to get rid of them. Is this the minority or the mayority? Since here on your blog i read that the civilians in eastern Ukraine do not suport Kiev. Sorry if this is rude but what is your source on that? I am just curius, but you are doing a good job covering this crisis hope you continue with this blog:)
3.
What is your opinion on this crisis and which side do you support or are you neutral?
1) There are so many weapons in eastern Ukraine right now .... everyone has a gun .... leaving some behind will not make a difference. As to the tanks .... I have not been impressed with what I have seen .... and what they left behind I think were tanks from the 50s and 60s. .... and they probably broke down for the simple reason that there were no parts to keep them operating.
2) I have always had the opinion that 1/3 of the population supports the separatists, 1/3 supports Kiev, and 1/3 do not care. My sources come from family members, friends, social media, people I know in the media on both the Ukraine and Russian sides, 2 Ukrainian deputies, and from some friends in the Russian government.
3) As to my opinion .... the devastation that this civil war is causing distresses me to no end. This part of Ukraine is very poor, where everyone helps everyone to get by. This has now been turned completely upside down. For the old and sick .... they are the ones who are suffering the most. They have no where to go, and almost all of them suffer in silence.
I have no sympathy for the Ukrainian nationalists who have brought about this mess, but I also have contempt for those pro-Russian leaders who have looted and stole so much when their friend and former Ukraine President Yanukovych was in power. I say ... a "pox" on both their houses.
Thanks for answer, this helped me understand the crisis a bit better. Its good that you exspress your opinion its always interesting the hear somones opinion.
1. Now Kiev says it control most of Donetsk and Lugansk. Does this mean the pro Russians lost so quiqly? Here is what i read: “Today, Ukrainian troops control 13 out of 18 districts of the Donetsk region and 10 out of 18 districts of Luhansk region,” Parubiy was quoted as saying.
" if Poroshenko offered a form of autonomy and decentralization .... most in eastern Ukraine would accept it, and the separatist fires would start to die."
Start a Tea Party in Ukraine.
Sooner or later there is going to be 1 world government. I am good with that. What I worry about is what form it would take. It has to be the right type of government or I would not countenance it. I have relatives in 2 European countries and one East Asian country. So I am by no mean xenophobic. So my point is that IMHO Ukraine and Russia being one country should be natural and among the 1st things to happen. Except it is being done by force.
There should be more local control with 3 (4?) level of government. But what has been sold in the Western press is one faction against another faction disputing a presidential election, jailing each other. The factions are lead by plutocrats/oligarchs, which occasionally the press says both factions of oligarchs are corrupt. The Western press has dropped the Neo-Nazi trope.
Maybe you could get Ted Cruz or someone form the Tea Party to visit and propose very explicitly and loudly (but not shrilly) about having a more federal/decentralized system of government. Not sure that Ted Cruz would have much of a half-life.
It cannot be one visit. But it has to be locals have to be doing the work. the outside "celebrity" has to come in and meet with locals so the locals are not shuffled off.
The Euro zone is not a bad ideal. Part of the problem is that had 3 levels of government onto 3 levels of government. It is too many levels of government with the new level not being answerable to the people. There are elections, but it does not mean much if there are too many elections and too much alphabet soup of bureaucracy. And it is too centralized. If the Euro zone is a good ideal, then a Ukraine/Russia merger would be a good ideal.
Hope we do not get a 1 world government. I am a nationalist and its very important that a country is soverign and not controled by a "elite" that dosent even know its culture. I dont think a 1 world government is possible in the current time pernhaps far into the future. I think Europe wil be divided once again. EU will not last for long, Nationalism has begining to come back to Europe in France, Germany, Sweden, Greece and Hungary.
Your last comment is pretty smart there Rhaeger. I don't think the one world government concept will be a viable reality for a long time either, but that won't stop the "elites" from trying.
I concur with you James.
I'll third it to many rules in my state as it is....likes my freedom very much.
Europe might break up. I certainly would not be sad to see it happen.
I know someone, who recently visited Greece. I hate seeing Greece blaming other European countries for their problems. The Greeks have plenty of money. It is in the underground economy to avoid taxes. The socialists have run out of other people's money. A lot of people are doing fine and eating out with large families. It might be hard for a person coming out of college. But it seems for a smart taxi cab drive life is good.
The European community has too many parliaments and too much democracy.
There is a natural size for empires and nations given human nature, corruption and what not.
If Europe was to retry building a European community they could start by countries in the twos and threes coalescing. For example there could be a Swedish, Norwegian & Danish union.
Yes, if there was one world government it would be slow and hopefully in the future.
The UN is corrupt and I don't want to be rule by the OIC or other such.
But I do see benefits in 1 world government. The devil is in the details. the details look very, very bad right now.
South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are coalescing toward a common culture in at least one sphere. They have some common pop music. I was surprised. There are a lot of forces tearing them apart including old animosities.
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