A Free Syrian Army fighter talks on a walkie-talkie near a rocket launcher during what they said was preparations for an operation to strike at forces loyal to Syria's president Bashar Al-Assad located in Daraa, July 27, 2015. Picture take July 27, 2015. REUTERS/ALAA AL-FAQIR
Reuters: Rebels see tougher war with Russians in Syria, evoke Afghanistan
Rebels who have inflicted big losses on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad say Russia's intervention in support of its ally will only lead to an escalation of the war and may encourage the rebels' Gulf Arab backers to pour in more military aid.
Russia's deployment is prompting a reassessment of the conflict among insurgents whose advances in western Syria in recent months may have been the catalyst for Russia's decision. U.S. officials say Russian forces are already arriving.
Rebels interviewed by Reuters say they have already encountered stronger government resistance in those areas - notably the coastal heartland of Assad's Alawite sect - and now predict an even tougher war with Russian involvement.
WNU Editor: A must read post. And the Syrian rebels are correct .... Russia's involvement is going to intensify the war as well as prolonging it.
3 comments:
I have my doubt with the prolong part. Rebels could be confident, can say nice phrases on how well they doing, yet they are nowhere near to win. Fighting is supposed to intensify because of the Russian deployment, but also because of winter upcoming it's will reduce at the same time. Winters in the past few years were harsh in Latakia and in general the western part of the country (NDF cideo from last winter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6u1LMku_Ko&feature=youtu.be ), it's expected that the next one won't be any easier. The amount of Russian military personal and additional assets cannot be known for sure, the article above mention 500, other sources say ~1600 combined with the Tartus Naval Base, but for now it's useless to even guess.
On the other hand the northern, north-western frontline just cleared out. It's rare to see such a clear frontline that lack of pockets (salients), it's form a stair shape like thing, with clear lines and 90 degree corners. Half a year ago it was not like that, but the SAA retreat from Idlib resulted such changes. Currently in the Latakia-Idlib-Hama area the Morek pocket is the only worth to mention.
In this area there is an underestimated section, which open a good possible direction of SAA advances. This is North Latakia, the area between Kessab and Al-Shughur, let's just call it the Al-Firliq Forest, because thats it's name. It's basically a huge forest, mountain environment, with minimal population, only few small vilages in the area. Currently the frontline here is ~40 km long, but at the southern point of the Turkish border, this frontline would be only 10 km. An operation in this direction would be optional for SAA to cut the lenght of the frontlines (they already doing this for years) and fix the force ratio along Al-Ghaab.
SAA has the resources and knowladge to fight in such an environment. NDF forces usually used for defending locations, and it's reputation in the media is not very high, but they have about 2-3 well organised, bigger unit which conducted offensives in the past, such as in the Qalamun, Kessab or Daraa area. After Kessab has been captured by the rebels around early 2014, SAA deployed a Mountain Infantry unit in the area to prepare the militias (NDF, Resistance) to this kind of warfare. Actually the enviroment was good for the government troops, their equipments well fit, and they efficiency was good. I can well imagine Russian support of an SAA/NDF led offensive in this area.
The question is that will they make such an operation or not? In July-Aug. of this summer, rebels advanced toward south Al-ghaab, where they was repelled by SAA. At this point they easily could advance toward center Latakia, and actually could put the currently used airfield under pressure, but for some reason they decided to do not so. Anyway this all is just "what if" talking, so not matter. I personally can not wait to see what military operation the sides come up with.
Thank you for your input mlacix
I would expect Russia's involvement to "intensify" the war in the short run. I would not expect Russian involvement to "prolong" the war. In fact, I think we should expect the opposite. I'd expect the Russian military to "clean ISIS clocks" to borrow an expression.
The Russian military has proven itself far more effective in conflicts such as the Georgian war than the United States military ever could have been. This combined with superior intelligence, better leadership, and better training makes them a far stronger force than America could expect to muster in the foreseeable future.
Part of the problem is policy towards Syria of the United States, certain Gulf Arab states, and so called "allies" is the policy was/is unrealistic. From the start I recognized that any solution to the conflict that involved the removal of Assad as the leader of Syria would not work. He's here to stay and attempts to alter this are/will be futile.
Maybe his removal is optimal, maybe it isn't. I don't know. Even if optimal, it is not going to happen. I recognized this from the start. It's a pity that certain US officials and other supposed "allies" were to ideologically blind to recognize the obvious. Now we find ourselves here.
It may have been our abject failure to recognize reality in the situation with Bashar Assad that may have "prolonged" this conflict and us continuing to deny reality could be the thing that causes the conflict to "intensify" and may result in "prolonging" it far more than Russian military involvement ever could have.
At the start, I had suggesting supporting Assad. This would have at least tow advantages over current policy. 1.)Assad was going to win in the end anyway. When both sides in a conflict, in this case, the Russia/Iran/Syria's Assad government and ISIS are all enemies it makes little sense to back the obvious loser in such a conflict which is very likely ISIS. 2.)By announcing a pro-Assad stance this more closer aligns us with Russia. This would have been all the better if we could have found some way to offer them assistance. At the least, it helps minimize some of the hostility Russia feels toward us.
Getting on the bad side of the most powerful member of any organization, simply is not a good way for one to conduct their affairs.
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