Saturday, June 25, 2016

Brexit Sparks Calls For Other EU Referendums


Washington Post: These countries could be next now that Britain has left the E.U.

LONDON — There was no lack of doomsday rhetoric before Britain's referendum on E.U. membership. European Council President Donald Tusk warned that Britain leaving the European Union could seriously threaten "Western political civilization."

Now, those fears have been stunningly amplified by the decision of British voters to break away. Predictions that the E.U. could break apart might be a bit far-fetched, but there certainly are other countries where demands for similar referendums could gain momentum.

Read more ....

More News On Calls for More Brexit Type Referendums In The EU

EU referendum: Brexit sparks calls for other EU votes -- BBC
Brexit SPREADS across Europe: Italy, France, Holland and Denmark ALL call for referendums -- Express
Brexit Sparks Calls For More EU Exits, World Leaders React To EU Referendum Result -- IBTimes
Buoyed by Brexit vote, more EU countries talk of exit -- Reuters
Who will be NEXIT? The Swexits, Czexits and Frexits that could follow Britain out of the EU... and the aftershocks hitting continent -- Daily Mail
What European Country Could 'Brexit' Next? -- Ian Bremmer, Fortune

15 comments:

mlacix said...

Well, even if Hungary is in this list, and it's there for a reason, but the chance for such a decision is small, and our current PM is not the one who would support this the most in here. So far up until 2020 Hungary will still get a lot of money from EU (to improve, and equalise fields of our society to western standards, however it's used horribly wrong), and our renewed economy (led by car industry) is higly based on EU, and mostly German companies. Our economic growt expected to slow down, to minimal level up until and after 2020 and such an exit would be equal with hanging ourselfs. This county is in a way worst state than most of EU members.


But some time earlier, in 2018 we will have an election, that is a key for all the parties. The article mention referendum related to refugees, but this is just used for party-political level goals, to gather support among the people. It's important to take note that between 2008-10 the left and liberal parties in Hungary just got destroyed their reputation (the reasons would need a lot of explonation, in short, they just fkd up) and since that time, politics here is dominated by right winged parties, including the leading party (central-right) and the second biggest party (far-right, EU flag burner, however tehy try to reorganise themself and focus more toward center). To the leading political party is a key to keep the peoples on their side, and vote for them, and to achive this they just say whatever the people want to hear, and the things that their "enemys"/opponents (the other parties) would say to gather votes. This led to a situation that there will be this referendum, and that's why there was such a strong "dictatorish"/rebellic rethoric from Hungary, during the last 1,5 year. If not the leading party that would lead the anti-refugee rethoric, then other parties would have done it, because there are always some who exploit populism.


Using such important matters for party-political level gains is wrong, unhealthy and shamefull. If there would be a vote here, there is a chance for leave, but if people understand that their stability and life rely on EU, I belive they will understand that staying would be better. Even if I do not support the EU leaders reactions now after the brexit vote, but they just want to exploit the looses, and use the fear, and instability to avoid any more referendum like this one. Some british people still do not understand what they voted for and the fear of instability will have it effect among all EU members.

James said...

mlacix,
What do you think of the Fallujah campaign? In my view they ARE taking it with very heavy US air support combined with pretty competent Iraqi regulars and Shia militia's. The thing I see is the behavior of the Shia militia's will make Fallujah one of those places so hard to hold that you wish you didn't have it.
It makes me wonder if the Iranians are consolidating their hold on Baghdad and the northern Shia border areas at the expense of campaigning north and west. It's almost like they are getting ready to hunker down to see which way the wind blows in US politics in the near future.
By the way though the Iraqis seem to have some pretty competent troops there doesn't seem to be many of them.

mlacix said...

James:

What I seen so far is that IS defending the city with way less(or worst) forces than they did in Ramadi. This could be because they expected the situation to turn this way (after Ramadi) and only left smaller forces here for a suicide defense (which is close to home for them), or it's either the "going underground" tactics that their predecessors often used. But I would expect the first to be the real thing. Soon after Ramadi, the road North from the city was the only way out of Fallujah, which soon after was closed, and 6 month of fighting came. Somehow I still find it weird that Iraqi forces could advance this easily into the city, and they really inside it, not just somewhere around the outside districts. But whatever I seen is that the level of environmental destruction is way less than it was in Ramadi.


About the "going underground" tactic, I think it's different now than it was before (like 2003+). US had it's way of handling POWs and possible collaborants, just like the government that came after Saddam had, but I doubt that those who are taken away for interrogations, will see the sun again. Vice News made a report about the Golden Division taking areas around the city of Hit (WNU made a post about it too), and it's showed well that they take a lot of possible collaborant away. This for sure will not easen the tensions between local Sunnis and Shias. Anyway I think IS will not go full into this underground thing, but we will see it months after Fallujah will be liberated, to how much fightign being reported in the Bagdad-Hit areas. I do not expect this Bagdad-hit line to be lost again, so I think there will be no problem with holding it. More likely I expect a Haditha-Baiji operation, that will clear the remained IS forces from the riverside, North from Ramadi, and by this no IS forces could get close to Falujah for a while.


I do not really focus on what could be Iran's political goal with the capture of Fallujah, and I do not really give importance to this step for now. I expect Iran will keep Iraq in safe as long as IS present in the area, but the things after IS gone could go crazy. Anyway I expect Iraq to be remain(even without the Kurdish areas), because I see it as a goal of Iran. I see Falujah as military targetand not a political one.

James said...

mlacix,
We diverge on the political/military aspect, but there are rumors that Khameini has died. If so I think this could have a drastic effect on Iran's military presence and energy in the Syrio/Iraqi areas.

mlacix said...

James:
I did not heard about this, but yes I'm sure it would have effects, however I doubt that it would change a lot on the battlefields. I may be wrong, and not a lot into politics (because of it's nature), but as I know peoples with this size of power and wills in their hand, and dreams to fulfill, way more planning and coordination happen in the background than it's seen on the public. Our long friends, Kim, Castro, and Chavez are bad examples, they lived/living in another dreams, but Khameini and the Iranian leadership wanted to achive more. As I learned in such cases the persons who are in charge are do making the choices, but they know things well enough to when to give the lead to others to continue on the big road. I expect them to be wise enough to do this. Even if he die the translation should have be smooth, but changes in political views could be differ a bit.


I almost forgot to ask you how much your faith increased toward the Iraqian forces, since our last talk? :)

James said...

mlacix,
Your last paragraph and last question go in my opinion to the heart of the matter in that region.

First I'll address the Iraqi forces question (and be brief which I am not famous for).
Anyone regardless of their origin or condition can be brave (only fools think otherwise) and the Iraqis are no exception. But there is also a difference between bravery, knowing how to fight, and having the ability to fight (just ask the Gauls about when all those short little Italians showed up and kicked their asses).
The only Iraqi formations that I have seen that can fulfill those criteria are the "Golden Division" and an assortment of special forces detachments. All the rest are are militia with religious (shia) roots and under Iranian control or influence.
It seems as if the "Golden Division" and the SO detachments are used with US air power to open the door (Ramadi and Fallujah) while the militia's come in and do the clean up. It's like the "Golden" and the SO's are a public face to do the heavy lifting and cover the militia's activities.
In a strict sense that works very well until they get out of their historic/cultural area, which just happens to be a line quite near Fallujah and Baghdad. North and west of that line things become problematic. You will notice that Baghdad is not letting the US or anyone else do any training of significant forces beyond the "Golden Division" and sundry Sos. They want no challenge to their authority which is based on the militias.
Anyway back to the cultural divide at Fallujah and Baghdad. It's not just Shia and Sunni, Persian and Arabic, but also historically urban vs nomad from the old days. Some may laugh and say that's archaic, but it's real and it matters. Only a few times have the Persians gone past this line for any amount of time. Enough of the history.
The Golden Division" will only play it's role for so long before it balks or goes over to the opposition. So in a sense the better they get the more dangerous they are to.....Baghdad.

On a political footnote: Solimeinis presence outside Fallujah takes on more meaning when you factor in the demise of Khameini as a near event. If true there will be a power struggle in Iran, how that goes and who comes out on top will make a big difference in the region.
Well I trust that was as long winded and pompous as it sounded!
mlacix we are going to some very interesting times in the next six months...........possibly, dare I say it, WNU publishing another picture of that storied sojourn in China circa 1980's, in shorts no less!).

mlacix said...

James:

What you say is exactly the goal. Yes, GD and SO are on the top of their forces, and even if the rest of their forces are not so great they good enough to hold lines. It's interesting how military adapting work (and could only work here) in a divided country. As long as they can carry the war on their back, this is working, and that what is matter. Back in the days when US poured money to the Iraqian Army training program I did not really payed attention to the details (I was just a child back then), so I have missing details on what the Iraqian Army was before their collapse when Mosul fallen. But so far what I know is that GD adn SO are loyal, and will remain on the side of the current Iraqian gov., for I don't know how long.


I try to pay more attention to the fighting forces and among the fighters it's shown the motivation and patriotism toward Iraq as a country, and they prise and fight for the county, not for else. And I kinda feel it weird because IS wanted a piece of theirs, but when IS will be gone Kurds want independents, and then comes Iran for their shares, and there is just no good future for this country. I do not know who will they fight after IS, or who turn against each other and something. I agree with you that the upcoming months will be interesting, however in military aspect it's kinda will not be that suprising, but who knows. Meanwhile let's hope WNU will publish another one, definetly.

War News Updates Editor said...

Something tells me that I have to take out my scanner and start scanning some old pics .... where I look very distinguish .... or not. :)

Si-vis-pasen- said...

Mlacix
While ago The UK S.A.S did some work over The city of raqqa inside IS controlled terrorists I haven't heard back from any source If they still operating inside Siria . would not surprise me if (an sniper team killed The scam bag Iranian general) ......I guess will know soon enough.

Si-vis-pasen- said...

WNU
I have said before that in my mind you are Sean Connery and if I was you I'll take that is a complement he is the best James bonds ever so you are the best blogger in the world no question asks.:)

War News Updates Editor said...

I definitely take it as a compliment .... but my GF will strongly disagree with you Si-vis-pasen :)

Si-vis-pasen- said...

WNU: maybe your girlfriend needs to Wikipedia Mr Connery she may change her mind

Si-vis-pasen- said...

I am talking about (www007wnu.com).

War News Updates Editor said...

LOL LOL LOL

mlacix said...

Si-vis-pasen:

It's very hard to tell that do they work in Syria or not, but would not they be the first SO forces that doing this. My guess is yes, even if not exactly in the city of Raqqa, but somewhere along the Kurd-IS frontlines. We will see, but i expect it later than sooner.

However WNU you need to buy this domain name, it's too good to not being used.