Wednesday, June 29, 2016

What Are The Odds Of U.S. And Russian Jets Firing At Each Other Over Syria?

Michael Peck, National Interest: How Long Before U.S. and Russian Jets Clash Over Syria?

Two of the world’s most powerful air forces are operating towards opposite goals. What could possibly go wrong?

How long will it be before American and Russia jets dogfight in the skies over Syria?

That possibility seems more likely after the latest in a string of confrontations between American and Russian aircraft. Earlier this month, Russian aircraft bombing U.S.-backed rebels fighting ISIS and the Syrian government almost confronted U.S. Navy fighters, according to the Los Angeles Times.

The Pentagon was incensed by the attack, which occurred on Syria’s border with Jordan, and not where Russian forces have operated until now. “No U.S. forces were present in the area, but the U.S. military scrambled fighter jets and used an emergency communications channel set up to avoid air accidents to tell Russian officers to end the strikes,” U.S. officials told the Times.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: When incidences like this happen .... U.S. Destroyer Plays 'Chicken' With Russian Warship In The Mediterranean (Video) .... expect the worse.


Stephen Davenport said...

Got to love the Russian theatrics, they have been harassing NATO aircraft and ships for years, and act out when the favor is returned so people like you fearmonger it. Question during the COld War how many ships were sunk or planes shot down in incidents like this.

B.Poster said...

SD: You write "Got to love the Russian theatrics,..." If by theatrics you mean utilizing the media to get their message out, they are the best in the world at using the media for this sort of thing. In contrast, the United States is the world's worst. What you call "theatrics" I refer as very sophisticated messaging.

As for harassing NATO aircraft and ships then acting out as you put it, there does seem to be some truth to this. The Russian messaging would have us believe the Russians are sweet, innocent, and full of 100% goodness. NO ONE can meet such lofty character traits all the time. The Russian messaging which the media often times picks up on without evaluating the context is a factor in this.

As I've pointed out here and elsewhere, Russian messaging is a bit like a world class athlete. US messaging is a bit like a 300 pound fat man who has no coordination whatsoever. In this situation, the best approach is probably going to be try and not get into an information war with them.

I'm not sure the Cold War analysis is relevant here. The Cold War adversaries of the USSR and the USA were allies against Nazi Germany in WWII and many of the second generation cold warriors were trained by people who fought along side the current adversary against a common foe in WWII. As such, the two sides had a certain degree of respect and perhaps even admiration for the other. Today's Russians especially the leadership holds us in utter contempt and have no respect for us. Additionally there were lines of communication during Cold War I established to help prevent misunderstandings. Today according some NATO "allies" these lines of communication are no longer operational.

Also, Russia's military superiority over the United States is greater today than it was at any time during Cold War I. As such, our forces are less likely to be harassed if they are not there. In another thread, I suggested protocol should be to maintain a distance of 500 miles from any Russian military craft. I would add to that this could be changed if absolutely necessary to defend the US mainland.

Bottom line: we need to do something to try and lessen tensions here. Great places to start would be to start looking at ways we can assist them (add value to them)and renegotiate NATO and all of the other ridiculous military agreements we currently have. At this time, the US military is going to have a hard enough time defending the US mainland much less honoring these other commitments. If reality as opposed to how one wishes the world was is embraced, good outcomes are still possible for America.