Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses during an attempted coup in Istanbul, Turkey July16, 2016. REUTERS/Huseyin Aldemir
WNU Editor: This coup was not well planned .... the coup officers did not even know where President Erdogan was staying. And while they did seize key installations, it appears that they were hoping for a groundswell of support from other military units, opposition leaders, and civilians that would cement their hold on power. But this tide of support did not materialise .... President Erdogan was free to rally support, many military units stayed out of the coup, and there was (from what I saw) no support from the civilian population. This coup lasted for about 6 hours .... and after that it fell apart.
As I had mentioned in the previous post, purges of the military, intelligence and security apparatus, government officials, and the judiciary are going to be the end result. Political opponents are going to be branded as traitors, and their civilian supporters be treated harshly. President Erdogan's priority right now is now to do everything in his power to reinforce his hold on the government and its institutions .... and considering how close he came to losing it all .... he is not going to be accommodating or merciful while doing it.
Here are my predictions on what will happen next ....
- President Erdogan's grip on power is now going to be absolute .... expect him to now stay in power for a long time.
- Erdogan is going to intensify his campaign to implement his Islamic agenda .... starting with changing the constitution .... say goodbye to Turkey being a secular state.
- Expect the war against the Kurds to now escalate. President Erdogan has always viewed the Kurds as his enemy .... there will now be little if any Turkish opposition to his military strategy and policies against them.
- There will be blow-back from any increased military campaign against the Kurds .... but I do not think Erdogan cares about that right now (or in the future). So .... expect more deadly and violent terror attacks.
- The Islamic State will continue their terror campaign against soft targets in Turkey.
- In the past month Erdogan has gone out of his way to improve relations with Israel and Russia .... I do not see this policy changing.
- There have been reports that the Turkish government wants to find some form of accommodation with the Syrian government .... I expect this policy to continue, albeit limited in the short term.
- European leaders were slow to support him when the coup started .... he will not forget that.
-Egypt did not denounce the coup, and many government media outlets supported it. I expect Turkish-Egyptian relations to enter a "deep freeze".
- President Obama did quickly announce his support of President Erdogan after the coup broke out .... that means U.S. - Turkish relations will not change.
- The Turkish economy is going to take a serious hit .... this will be President Erdogan's Achilles Heel in the long term.