Thursday, July 21, 2016

Who Would Win In A War Over The South China Sea?

Financial Review: China-US military balance not so lop-sided

If it came to a war over the South China Sea, who would win?

Ten years ago, the answer would have been a resounding nod to the United States. While the odds are still well in the super power's favour today, military experts say the costs would be high and China could inflict some serious damage.

Of course, this is an extreme scenario. Most analysts agree that the chance of a conventional war between China and the US over the South China Sea is low, precisely because the consequences are so serious.

It would pit a rising military power against the most established fighting force in the world, which would ostensibly be acting in support of its regional allies and to maintain its influence in the region.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: If a war broke out today .... the U.S. would win, and it will recover quickly (i.e. a few years). If a war breaks out 10 years from now .... the U.S. would win but the recovery would be long and difficult. 20 years .... if current trends continue .... China will be well positioned to come out on top. China is playing the long game .... they feel confident that with time (i.e. a decade or two) they will be positioned to assert their claims with force, and there is nothing that anyone can do about it.


Anonymous said...

This is all bullshit. China is looking to the future with its One Belt-One Road/New Silk Road economic policies and its space program/ Governments representing about half the world's population are allied with the Chinese in this perspective. The US, on the other hand, represents the bankrupt trans-Atlantic financial system, a system that should be allowed to die rather than be defended to the bitter end. instead of talking about who would win a US-China war-which no one would win-we should be concerned about creating the future for coming generations.

TWN said...

Both have Nuclear weapons, I don't see them not using them, if one side or the other is losing.I maybe missing some spark of common sense in the So Called Leadership of these countries, but I doubt it. The best we can hope for is they both back off, but I don't see that happening.

Turfy77 said...

It would go nuclear quickly and China would be flattened, china wouldn't have the capability to get as close to the US mainland as the US could to China mainland therefor China would be wiped off the face of the planet

Turfy77 said...

It would go nuclear quickly and China would be flattened, china wouldn't have the capability to get as close to the US mainland as the US could to China mainland therefor China would be wiped off the face of the planet

Jac said...

USA has to be strong against China because Chinese are not stupid: they will blink instead of being destroyed.

Jay Farquharson said...


Jay Farquharson said...

"Medium and Intercontinental Range Ballistic Missiles (2007). Note: China currently is capable of targeting its nuclear forces throughout the region and most of the world, including the continental United States. Newer systems, such as the DF-31, DF-31A, and JL-2, will give China a more survivable nuclear force."

"Quite Possibly the Dumbest Military Concept Ever: A 'Limited' Nuclear War"

A minor nuclear war with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history. A nuclear war between the United States and Russia today could produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet. The climatic effects of the smoke from burning cities and industrial areas would last for several years, much longer than previously thought. New climate model simulations, which are said to have the capability of including the entire atmosphere and oceans, show that the smoke would be lofted by solar heating to the upper stratosphere, where it would remain for years."

Si-vis-pasen- said...

The Chinese military have NOT combat experience .
The US have been at war sense ww1
The Chinese oil industry can't be self-sufficient just they don't have the natural resources for a large-scale conflict.
The US have no only the biggest industrial complex on their side but also the have friends that have plenty of oil like Canada and Saudi Arabia.
Most of the United States main land is industrialized..and most of China is extremely poor .(look at the Chinese immigration problem from people who moves to the industrial area's in the last 25 years.
The United States have weapons systems of all kinds some of them are worth some are just bad like (interceptor re-entry program )
And this one is to be afraid of (nuclear power submarines bomber class.
The Chinese logistic problem is similar to the one that the Japanize had in the 30's.
China have many enemy's some of them are very powerful.
And the US have many friends Whit nuclear weapons. For China to have economic relations with many nations no necessarily reflect going to war for it .

Jay Farquharson said...

That we know of, the US has tried the unilateral "Blink" theory 8 times, (Kissenger called it "The Madman Theory"),

three times against China, 5 times against The Soviet Union.

all China and the Soviet Union did, was put their Nuclear Forces on alert and kept doing what they were doing.

Once, it was a double "Blink" between the US and the Soviet Union, and guess what, faced with the prospect of nuclear war, both sides blinked.

Jay Farquharson said...

The Chinese military has had combat experience,

and if there is a war:

- it will be over the South China Sea, where the US is faced with the issue of projecting force and logistical supply, not the Gulf of Mexico,

- it will be a modern war of attrition, where in the first few month's, ( if it doesn't go nuclear) both sides will very quickly tun out of modern tanks, ships and aircraft,

-and the US will be the one to start it.

BTW, on this:
" the US have been at war sense WWI",

You are quite wrong.

Except for a several periods totaling 8 years, none longer than 2 years, the US has been at war since 1776.

Kinda redefines the concept of who is, and who isn't warmonger.

RRH said...

The last time the Chinese and the U.S. fought it ended up a stalemate on the Korean Peninsula. The Chinese, with no nukes, were not afraid to fight then and are not afraid to fight now. They are better equipped than ever to inflict massive damage on the U.S. Enough damage to change the world order as we know it.

It is also hard to believe Russia will sit it out as the "Western" hysterical war cries and constant conniving are pushing Moscow and Beijing closer together.

Hopefully, for all of us, as mentioned above, the Chinese remain focused on the "one road, one belt" project__ and building socialism with Chinese characteristics__ as opposed to being distracted by the maneuvering/tantrums of the "warmongers" (Jay calls 'em as he sees 'em).