Wednesday, August 17, 2016

China Is Planning A 'Big Move' In The South China Sea In The Next Two Months

(Click on Image to Enlarge)
Image from the South China Morning Post

Harry J. Kazianis, National Interest: Report: China Could Make a Big Move in the South China Sea Starting Next Month

It seems if the People’s Republic of China is going to make a push to radically alter the status-quo in the South China Sea—by reclaiming the hotly disputed Scarborough Shoal that is clearly within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines—we now have a good idea of when that might happen: sometime between early September, after the G-20 summit being hosted in China, and the U.S. presidential election on November 8th.

The idea was laid out in a recent article in the South China Morning Post in an article dated August 13th. The report, quoting “a source familiar with the matter”, said that Beijing would not carry out any reclamation work on the Shoal before hosting the G-20 next month but could begin construction before America goes to the polls. “Since the G20 will be held in Hangzhou next month, and regional peace will be the main topic among leaders of the great powers, China will refrain from [acting on the] reclamation plan,” explained the source, who was not identified.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: A lot of things have the potential of happening in the next two months as the U.S. becomes more focused on the Presidential election .... the South China Sea being just one of them.

26 comments:

Jay Farquharson said...

Unsubstantiated rumour.

The reality is China's been playing the long game, they arn't going to change it up now.

Unlike the US, that reinforces failure, China reinforces success.

RRH said...

It's always some drama.

As if China stating in plain language -with the means to back it up- that her sovereignty in the S. China Sea is inviolable isn't "something" enough.

You'd think there are some folks out there who really want a war....

Anonymous said...

China wants war

Jay Farquharson said...

Nope, the US want's war. Some want war with China, some wan't war with Iran, some want war with Russia, some want war with 2 out of three at the same time, some want war with all three.

Unable to win conventional arms conflicts against insurgents in 9 conflict zones, many in the US are lusting and doing all they can to try to get the US into a WWII style peer to peer war with the hope that they can actually win one.

It's the Vietnam Syndrome all over again but with no Grenada available.

Anonymous said...

Jay...all of your comments seem to be anti-American. I don't think I've ever seen you say anything remotely pro-American. Yes, America has problems, but believe it or not, America is not the Great Satan than you think it is.

China claims the entire SCS is theirs. China is willing to start a war over the SCS. Their claim that the entire SCS belongs to them is absurd.


RRH said...

1) China's claims stretch back long before the U.S. was even thought about.

2) The "Century of Humiliation" is writ large on the Chinese national psyche. They are playing the long game and history informs their strategy.

3) Certain people should have thought about the potential for trouble with China when they backed irredentist Lamas and bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade to name a couple of more "recent" slights.

4) The Chinese do not want war. -It is not China that has invaded or attacked through proxies no fewer than four countries since the turn of the century - never mind the last century.- but she knows her history and her enemies. She will fight if she has to.

5) Every time the imperialist countries get into an economic pickle due to the piggish "eat yourself to death" dominant ideology, they start casting around for war. In more and more of the U.S. and "the west" the proles are getting restless. Quantitative easing has nothing on Blizkreig for soothing the pain of growing class conflict.

Jay Farquharson said...

China has "valid" claims, based on historic "discovery" and "use" to an expanded EEZ. So does Cambodia, Vietnam, the Phillipines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan and less so, Taiwan.

Normally, what happens in these cases, like Canada vs. France, Canada vs. the US, Canada vs. Greenland, Canada vs. Spain and Portugal, is over a long period of trade, negotiations, arbitration, diplomacy, posturing, conflict, binding agreements are reached.

You are probably too young to remember al the net cuttings, rankings, gunfire and Naval Confrontations off the Grand Banks, and are probably unaware that in over 100 years of the above process, ( san's Naval Confrontations), Canada and the US have still not reached an agreement over the Machias Seal Island, ( Maine/New Brunswick), over 50 years, the Straight of Juan de Fuca, the Dixon Passage, the Beaufort Sea, and in the past 30 years, the NorthWest Passage.

There are thousands of such disputes, globally. The "normal" International response to such disputes by Countries with out a claim in the Issue, is "solve it yourselves, through Diplomacy and Negotiation".

Is China deploying Naval Forces to Machias Sea Island in support of Canada's claims? Nope.

Is Chinese media, the Military and Government full of vitriolic, semi-accurate portrayal's of the conflict, urging China take military action on Canada's behalf? Of course not.

As for China's declaration of an ADZ/MDZ in the South China Sea, you are apparently unaware that the US declared a ADZ/MDZ over roughly 1/4 of the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans for "National Security Reasons".

While lacking any legality in International Law, everybody including China and Russia, ( military and Civillian) just treats it as a bureaucratic pain in the ass, complys with it and views it as another example of American paranoia and Security Theater.

Sorry you don't like that I pick on the US a lot, but remind me again how many wars of choice you are engaged in, how many countries you have destabilized and how much your media, military and politicians are involved in passive aggressive whining and posturing?

RussInSoCal said...

The permanent court of arbitration totally rebuked China and its claims of entitlement to sections of the South China Sea. But I guess that's just more "imperialism" from the West.

The Canadian/US territorial pending-agreements analogy is laughable because those disputes are strategically unimportant to either either nation.

The North American ADIZ which was established during WWII - and encompasses Canada - hardly occupies a quarter of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Nor does it infringe on other nation's legit territorial claims. ADIZ zones are in place all over that region, but only in the SCS are they enforced with fighter jets. Why?











Jay Farquharson said...

Helps to actually read the Arbitration Court's decision,

And look, abandoning the US, the Phillipines and China are negotiating:

>>As much as Washington may hate it, the fact is Beijing and Manila are diplomatically discussing the situation in the South China Sea.

Champagne bottles are not popping yet, but Special Philippine envoy, former President Fidel Ramos, did go to Hong Kong, and on behalf of President Rodrigo Duterte, got together with Fu Ying, the chairwoman of the foreign affairs committee of the National People’s Congress. On the record, Ramos made sure that Manila is all in for formal negotiations.<<
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/08/17/while-beijing-and-manila-talk-washington-spoiling-for-a-fight/
Seems even the Phillipines are getting wise to the US's War Lust and know which side of the bread their butter is on.




Matthew Dupuis said...

China never fought a war to protect Canada from the U.S.. China didn't defeat and then pledge to defend Canada from outside hostilities. The U.S. hasn't threatened to recapture territory friendly to the China off the Canadian coast. Jay, your comparisons using Canada are completely out of touch.
By the way, Canada has been involved in all the same conflicts as the U.S. over the past 20 years in one way or another.
And we're not talking about ADIZs, we're talking about one nation literally creating sovereign territory.
All of your comparisons of border dispute settlement involve countries that are essentially already friends. That is not the case in Asia... Your comparing apples to salmon. Obviously China is not interested in "solve[ing] it yourselves, through Diplomacy and Negotiation" or the islands in the SCS wouldn't even be there.
Japanese, Taiwanese, Pilipino, and Korean interests (among others) ARE U.S. interests and the U.S. relationships with those countries are more important than the Chinese/U.S. relationship to more people than just 'MERCANS.

Jay Farquharson said...

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/08/17/while-beijing-and-manila-talk-washington-spoiling-for-a-fight

Oh look, the Phillipines is abandoning the US War platform and negotiating with China,

all you are pointing out is sometimes, our corrupt elites make common cause.

The US sells cluster bombs to Saudi Arabia, selects hospitals and schools to be bombed in Yemen, loads, fuels and services the fighter bombers, then washes the blood off when they come back.

Canada sells Saudi Arabia LAV's, trains the SANG on how to best use them, then when they come back from crushing dissent in Narijain, Manimah, Dammam, we check the air in the tires, change the oil, and wash the blood off.

You might not have noticed, but the World has changed significantly, mere day's after Bush II's Mission Accomplished lap. Other than pointing out past examples of complicity in treachery and double dealing ( Biafra, Vietnam, Haiti, Somalia, etc) references to WWII and the early Cold War, are as relevant as references to the Invasions of Upper and Lower Canada during both Wars, or the Fenian Wars.

But it's nice to know that you think Canada should go to war against Russia, China and Iran.

Anonymous said...

jay and rrh, chinese spies? lol solid points made matthew

Jay Farquharson said...

Gotta do better than that Anonamous, been called much more offensive things than that. All it really mean's is the name caller has no ethics, morals, or argument and hides behind anonminity on the web.

fazman said...

The courts validated the u.s stance, time for the u.s to help vietnam and the Phillipines militarise their reefs.

fazman said...

The courts validated the u.s stance, time for the u.s to help vietnam and the Phillipines militarise their reefs.

Jay Farquharson said...

The Phillipines militarized their reef in the '70's, Vietnam, the 90's.

You need to keep up to speed.

RRH said...

Oh, the U.S. that killed 3 million plus Vietnamese in ten years of war is now the guarantor of Vietnamese sovereignty?

C'mon....


Chinese spy?? I guess that makes all of those corporate types who closed up shop in North America in favour of investments in China straight up traitors.

Regardless, being someone who respects China's position, wishes the government of his country had half of the guts and sense of sovereignty of the Chinese does not make them a "spy". Besides, the only thing China could learn from "spying" on Canada is how to roll over and let quislings run their country.

fazman said...

Not talking 50 cals, it was for the first time kast week that vietnam installed a heavy cal tocket.
Lets get some persoective here

fazman said...

Not talking 50 cals, it was for the first time kast week that vietnam installed a heavy cal tocket.
Lets get some persoective here

fazman said...

Not talking 50 cals, it was for the first time kast week that vietnam installed a heavy cal tocket.
Lets get some persoective here

fazman said...

Not talking 50 cals, it was for the first time kast week that vietnam installed a heavy cal tocket.
Lets get some persoective here

B.Poster said...

China has the world's second most powerful military force and has the support of Russia who has the world's most powerful military force. At this point, the United States military will have a hard enough time defending American let alone helping the Phillipines, Vietnam, or any other country defend its "reefs."

For those who say that war between China and the US hurts China worse, they are flat wrong. The sooner such morons can be purged from power the better. The US is heavily dependent upon "made in China" much more than China depends upon sales to the US. The main concern here for the US is going to be keeping the shipping lanes open so "made in China" can continue to come in. While this situation does need to change and President Trump will likely make every effort to do so, this is going to take time.

In the meantime, ensuring a reliable shipment of "made in China" is going to be paramount. While the next POTUS will not be one whose policies created this reality, they will still have to act within reality as it is and not how one wishes it to be.

For America, the top priorities for national defense are going to be upgrading and expanding the nuclear arsenal including the means to deliver it and ensuring a second strike capability making it to costly for anyone to consider invading it and border security. This will, in all likelihood mean removing other nations from the so called "nuclear umbrella."

As to the court ruling, perhaps it is a just ruling, perhaps not. In any event, the UN has a long sad history of injustice (the myriad of ridiculous rulings against Israel to name a few) that it seems problematic at best to put any trust in these types of forums.

The bottom line is China is the second most powerful on earth militarily and has the backing of Russia the most powerful military on earth. All parties in the region are simply going to have to adjust and act accordingly. Exactly how they do this will likely be different for each nation in the region as they all have different interests as well as different strengths and weaknesses.

fazman said...

Where does this russia has the worlds most powerful military come from?
It doesnt, it is a regional force unable to project power globally like the u.s.

fazman said...

Where does this russia has the worlds most powerful military come from?
It doesnt, it is a regional force unable to project power globally like the u.s.

B.Poster said...

Nuclear forces, cyber warfare, special operations forces, and superior human intellegence services among other things I've already mentioned on this website make Russia the most powerful military force on the pkanet. China is second. All foreign policy needs to be conducted with this in mind.

Properly adjust to reality and good outcomes are still posdible. Failure to recognize rwality and act accordingly generally doesn't end well.

fazman said...

By any count be it amount of hardware, operational performamce of equipment, spetnatz dismal hostage rescue missions
Records ( pumping in lethal doses of anthastesia into a chechen held theatre) to the tragically bundled school rescue there special forces would not rate against the sas of australia or u.k.
Nukes are a non event they all have enough to destroy the other and each side knows it.
Cyber and electronic warefare yep you are correct.
But to rate a regional power as a global military, even putin admitted that the u.s is the only superpower for now.