Monday, September 26, 2016

Is The Syrian Conflict A War That Can Only Be Resolved By Military Means?

A man at a site recently hit by what activists said was a Scud missile in Aleppo’s Ard al-Hamra neighborhood, February 23, 2013. REUTERS/Muzaffar Salman

Bilal Abdul Kareem, Middle East Monitor: Why there can only be a military solution in Syria

Most of the outside world watched in horror at news that the ill-fated Aleppo aid convoy was blasted and burned.

Words such as “unbelievable” and “shocking” filled news broadcasts. However, here in besieged Aleppo, the events of that day were neither unbelievable, nor shocking.

Most of the outside world watched in horror at news that the ill-fated Aleppo aid convoy was blasted and burned.

Words such as “unbelievable” and “shocking” filled news broadcasts. However, here in besieged Aleppo, the events of that day were neither unbelievable, nor shocking.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I have also somewhat come to the conclusion that the Syrian conflict is now a war that can only be resolved my military means .... and will it happen only over a long period of time. All the sides are no longer interested in talking to each other .... and all sides are too hardened to even contemplate negotiation and compromise. The result then is all too predictable .... a long and grinding insurgency .... with the involvement of outsides either directly or through proxies. My prediction .... while rebel held-Aleppo may fall, controlling these territories with a heavy Syrian military presence and having the means to conquer additional rebel held regions will be very difficult for a Syrian Army that has suffered enormous casualties in the past 5 years. There is a limit on what the Syrian regime can do .... and I suspect that this will be more than evident as time passes by. As a result .... the war will slowly grind on until the rebellion has been finally crushed ..... sighhh .... I can easily this going on for the next few years.

6 comments:

Matthew Dupuis said...

We have already reached a point where Turkish troops are inside Syria; are Saudi and Egyptian troops next?

MaoTin said...

Its Lawrences fault :D nah, not realy ;)

Anonymous said...

There's probably a greater possibility that the Saudis would import Fighters from Syria to try and stem the Houthi advances in the south of their own country...regardless they have their hands full and then some trying to defend their own kingdom.

mlacix said...

Matthew:
Even if Turkish forces are on the ground of Syria, it's still a different case than having Egyp or SA interventing in land. As Anonym said, things not going so well for SA in their fight against the Houtis, and Egypt also busy with their own inside fighting. What comes next to the war in Syria is unkwnown. The military possibilities are limited now, some frotnline got inactive, and truces making their effects. Some weeks ago the rebels give up their resistance in Daraya, and with a deal with SAA they were transported to other rebel held areas. In the recent days the last remained pocket in the boundary of the Homs city (the battle for the city ended long ago, but there was one pocket of resistance remained nearby) just making the same deal, and some ~200 rebel were already transported to the North Homs pocket, while some sources say a large amount of rebels will "reconcile".

Also winter is coming, and even if it's not the worst in the region, but it still could froze some frontline even more, and make the life in besieged areas harder. Even if some would not image it of Syria, but there could be snowstorms too, at least in some areas. The fight for Aleppo will remain on spot, but there are way more important events going on the ground, such as the cracks of SAA's defense in Der-er-Zor, which is still unknow how could be fixed, or IS advance toward Palmyra, but also very intense battles that raging in North Hama.

Miguel LM said...

Spot on Mlacix.

For the rebels, the danger is : Aleppo, South Aleppo, Latakia, Southern Front

For SA : North Hama, having ISIS replaced by the rebels North Aleppo, Deir EZor (ISIS) and still as you said Palmyra is not safe from ISIS


.... only solution is hanging Assad and his regime. Free elections in 2/3years, until there UN rules some regions like Damascus, Latakia, Homs, etc. If the fight is the solution, the country will be destroed (far worse than what it is today)

Anonymous said...

Lol, the quickest rout to a Nusra state of Syria...