Saturday, November 5, 2016

Are The U.S. Presidential Polls Right?

Donald Trump shakes hands with Hillary Clinton at the start of their first presidential debate. REUTERS/Mike Segar

The Hill: Dems fret over tightening polls

Are the polls skewed?

More and more Democrats appear to be worried that they are.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is within the margin of error of Democrat Hillary Clinton in the preponderance of battleground states, and Republicans are suddenly rallying behind him, filling Democrats with anxiety that the vote count could deviate from the polls and produce a Trump victory.

Asked if she bought into the theory that the polls are wrong and Trump might actually be ahead, Democratic strategist Christy Setzer responded: “I do, unfortunately.”

She pointed to Clinton’s decision to advertise in the state of Michigan, which had seemed to be safely out of reach for Trump.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I am not a pollster .... but I do follow very closely on how these polls are done .... specifically on the methodology/parameters/guidelines/etc. that they use when they collect their polling data. In 2012 it made sense to me for these pollsters to heavily favour Democrats and minorities when they did their polls. President Obama was (and still is) an exceptional and energetic campaigner .... and as predicted by the polls in 2012 .... he was successful in turning out his base. While on the flip side .... many of these same pollsters saw that many Republicans were not enthusiastic with Mitt Romney .... especially the evangelical right .... and their prediction that many Republicans would stay home was also proven right.

Flash forward to 2016 .... this is definitely a different election. But many of today's pollsters are using the same numbers from 2012 and expecting the same turnout among blacks and other minorities .... coupled with a low Republican turnout for Donald Trump. But I just do not see that happening. Hillary Clinton is no President Obama .... and she does not generate the buzz that President Obama was able to generate in 2012. And when contrasted to the massive rallies that President Obama was able to generate at every campaign spot that he made in 2012 .... and the massive rallies that Donald Trump has been able to attract in 2016 .... Hillary Clinton's rallies have been incredibly small .... even with all the advertising and positive press coverage that she has received. I should also add the  observation that Republican grass roots enthusiasm has come back in 2016 .... and they are definitely not going to stay home.

But .... I must admit .....we can speculate all that we want but in 72 hours we are going to know the truth .... and in the end that is what is going to count. In the meantime .... prepare the popcorn, and be prepared to watch a very interesting show.

Update #1: Latest Polls from Real Clear Politics

Update #2: Jsut a reminder on how polls can go wrong. The first U.S. Presidential election that I followed was the 1980 election .... and the pollsters then were predicting a massive Reagan defeat just a few weeks before the polls.

Update #3: An interesting interactive map (the link is here) where you can do your own electoral vote projections.

Update: LOL .... the pollsters are now swearing at each other .... Nate Silver Goes to War With HuffPost Writer: ‘You Have No F*cking Idea What You’re Talking About’ (Mediaite).

1 comment:

TWN said...

The Polls don't seem right, it was like that with the Brexit vote as well, most votes one can have a sense how it will go, but there is something wrong here, a disconnect, an in-congruence with the MSM and the Alternative Press, Trump has rallies of thousands and Clinton hundreds, then there is the scandals with in the Clinton camp and the polls don't reflect all that corruption. Something is not right.