Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- June 27, 2017

Stratfor: Stratfor Worldview’s 2017 Third-Quarter Forecast

Based on the principle that transformative world events are not random, but are in fact predictable, Stratfor develops decade, annual and quarterly forecasts. These forecast are built upon Stratfor’s geopolitical methodology, our framework for identifying and forecasting the fundamental trends shaping the international system. Below are the global trends highlighted in Stratfor’s forecast for the third-quarter of 2017. The complete forecast is available at Stratfor Worldview.

The U.S. Exits Stage Left?

When world leaders gather in Germany for the approaching G-20 summit, they will no doubt make a slew of assertions — some alarmist, others justified — about a U.S. retreat from the global stage. Talk of leaders like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping stepping in to fill the void and uphold global governance on major issues such as free trade, climate change and security can be expected. But there is an underlying reality to that narrative that should be kept in mind.

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Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- June 27, 2017

Sitrep Raqqa: The Geopolitics of Eastern Syria -- Joseph V. Micallef, Military.com

The Islamic State's New Realities -- Giorgio Cafiero & Daniel Wagner, The Atlantic Council

As ISIS Falls, Border Battles Loom -- Fritz Lodge, Cipher Brief

Recep Tayyip Erdogan: How Much Can One Strongman Change a Country? -- Shami Hadid, The Atlantic

Gaza on the Brink -- Benedetta Berti, Foreign Affairs

Will China and America Roll Back North Korea's Nuclear Program? -- Stephan Haggard, National Interest

Sending North Korea a Message -- Seth Cropsey, RCD

Whither Japanese Democracy -- Daniel Hurst, Asia Times

Obama Choked on Russia Long Before the 2016 Election -- Eli Lake, Bloomberg

Don’t Believe the Hype About European Defense -- Luis Simon, War on the Rocks

On Migration, Europe Is Admitting the Truth to Itself -- Michael Brendan Dougherty, NRO

Venezuela Scrapes the Bottom of Oil Barrel Diplomacy -- Mac Margolis, Bloomberg

America and the Geopolitics of Upheaval -- Hal Brands & Eric Edelman, National Interest

Vulnerable 'Chokepoints' Threaten Global Food Security, Experts Warn -- Yasmeen Serhan, The Atlantic

Google Is Fighting a Losing Battle With the EU -- Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg

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