Saturday, July 20, 2019

Was Iran's Seizure Of A British Oil Tanker A Strategic Mistake?



Sam Kiley, CNN: Iran's gamble on a tanker seizure will end its credit -- even among friends

Steadily increasing its bets in an international game of bluff, Iran has gone almost all in with a gamble that its hard liners must believe is worth the punt -- but which will certainly end their credit lines even among friends.

In seizing a foreign tanker which it accuses of "violating international regulations," Tehran has resorted to a form of piracy in international waters.

At a time when Iran might have begun to win friends and influence people in the world's corridors of power, it's showing that it really could be the force of dangerous instability that its most ardent enemies have claimed.

Iran has legitimate frustrations over the American withdrawal from the nuclear deal that was supposed to swap limiting its nuclear program for an end to economic sanctions.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I am sure this seizure of a British oil tanker is playing well in Iran. But will this seizure help Iran in eliminating sanctions and gain allies in the world .... IMHO definitely not. It also puts two key European supporters of the Iranian nuclear deal in a difficult position. Germany and France have worked hard to help Iran circumvent US sanctions, but any help will be impossible now with this seizure. For the moment both countries are condemning this move .... Germany and France condemn Iran's seizure of British tanker (DW), but for all practical purposes any EU movement to assist Iran is now "dead in the water". It also puts China and Russia in a bind, especially China who have made pursuing an alternative new world order and respect of international law that is independent of the West. Supporting a country's action of piracy is not what China wants to do, and I predict that they will stay neutral. As for Russia .... they are going to stay away from this conflict as much as possible, and will watch from the sidelines.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

Iran clowns the west again and again.

Isreal cowers in fear from Hezbollah. The resistance axis grows stronger every day.

Anonymous said...

Israel and allied forces will wipe out any Iranian threat in short time. A rain ob cruise missiles should rock in ayatollah ass...

fazman said...

Exactly, Israel ciwers from hezbollah 🤣🤣🤣 please

Anonymous said...

Israel has no ship in this dispute
next dumb thing to say?

jimbrown said...

Like Hitlers invasion of Poland?

Anonymous said...

When your enemy has many other enemies, even though you have no ship in the current dispute, you are involved.

I agree with you 901. You comment was the next dumb thing.

Anonymous said...

Fazman,

Israel attacking Hezbollah will be a meat grinder. Israel will win, but they will be put through a meat grinder. In the latter stages Israel will put Hezbollah through a meat grinder; they won't stop until they get to northern Beirut.

https://www.amazon.com/Tactics-Crescent-Moon-Militant-Methods/dp/0963869574

Hezbollah has had time to site pillboxes and command posts all over. They have poured concrete command posts beneath grad schools.

My take is that a post 2006 war will be extremely bitter. Afterwards, Iran will not have its Lebanese plaything anymore. There will be fighting in South America and the US.

Mike Feldhake said...

Someone is pro Hezbollah here;

Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, not a true organization with skills to accomplish much. They may anoy Israel but that's it. Maybe Hezbollah should work to make the daily lives of the people they want to rule better!

Anonymous said...

Mike,

No, I am not. I am basing it off the fact that the IDF did not get as far in 2006 as in 1982. I am not going to assume that because I hate Hezbollah that they are incompetent boobs through and through. I like to see Hezbollah crack in Syria and complain about 1,000+ battlefield deaths.

Hezbollah and Assad Regime are the reason there are no Christians in South Lebanon any more.

Steel reinforce Concrete, underground tunnels, knowledge of the terrain, etc helps the defender a lot.

I hope Trump's embargo on Iran puts such a strain on Hezbollah that the material condition of their equipment suffers to an extent that Israel steamrolls them.

Read the book.

Caecus said...

I'm sure the books presentation of their tactics is good but the preface is weird. Comparing jihadists to american Christian fundamentalists is ridiculous, so is quoting Al-Azhar to claim Islam rejects terrorism is also absurd:

"It can’t [condemn the Islamic State as un-Islamic]. The Islamic State is a byproduct of Al Azhar’s programs. So can Al Azhar denounce itself as un-Islamic? Al Azhar says there must be a caliphate and that it is an obligation for the Muslim world [to establish it]. Al Azhar teaches the law of apostasy and killing the apostate. Al Azhar is hostile towards religious minorities, and teaches things like not building churches, etc. Al Azhar upholds the institution of jizya [extracting tribute from religious minorities]. Al Azhar teaches stoning people. So can Al Azhar denounce itself as un-Islamic?" Sheikh Muhammad Abdullah Nasr, a scholar who graduated at Al-Azhar

Anonymous said...

Caecus

Which book are talking about?

This book does not praise Islam

https://www.amazon.com/Tactics-Crescent-Moon-Militant-Methods/dp/0963869574

Caecus said...

Doesn't praise Islam but clearly the preface portrays a picture of a relatively peaceful Islam being distorted by a tiny minority of radicals and quotes Al-Azhar to back this up. But as I said Al-Azhar, which is the foremost scholarly authority in Sunni Islam has never condemned the methods of Islamic State.

I'm pointing this out because it's disconcerting that even books focused on defeating jihadis contain this popular narrative that is a delusion, basically, and the main reason the US/West is never going to succeed in "counter-terrorism"

gg said...

only the devil cares

Anonymous said...

Britain is a shadow of its former glories, but Iran is still punching above its weight class. The Mullahocracy thinks it is as powerful as China. They can’t bully their way around the Persian Gulf like People’s Republic can the South China Sea.

Anonymous said...

Caecus

I looked at pages xv & XVi

You are correct in your criticisms. It has been awhile, since I picked up the book.

I am unsure if the author believes in the preface or merely added to not be considered an Islamphobe.



Anonymous said...

Mike, If you knew anything about Hezbollah, you would know that their widespread grassroots support among the Shia in Lebanon derives primarily from their social programs.

Clinics, schools, construction programs, and even waste disposal. They stand in where the Lebanese state can't.

Their light infantry is among the best world and victories in 2000 and 2006 remain great sources of pride for many Lebanese, not just Shia. Millions of people throughout the world, including this American, view them as freedom fighters. I suspect Washington and Jefferson would feel the same way.

Anonymous said...

Hezbollah are not freedom fighter.

They make their money smuggling drugs and other items.

They wiped out ethnic Christians in South Lebanon.

The 2006 war was provoked by them and not the other way around.

Jac said...

The Iran policy is going nowhere: the Iranian boat was seized for infringing international banning, the size of the British boat is only for revenge. Iran is losing ground on every subject.

fazman said...

Light infantry amongst worlds best? What you talking about willis

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fazman said...

Sanctions lol, what a joke. They are sanctioned to the hilt, anything economic that the U. K does will inconsequential.
They should have told the Iranians that they have missile lock on that helicopter.

Bob Huntley said...

Jac

"Iran is losing ground on every subject."

Meanwhile the centrifuges are spinning. Time can be your best friend, or, your worst enemy.

Anonymous said...

So why have United States petrol prices dropped $0.03 over the weekend?

Bob Huntley said...

.03? BFD?

Anonymous said...

Bob Huntly,

I wasn’t clear. I expected petrol prices to soar. That the price lowered caught me completely by surprise. That said, I am such a cheapskate that $0.03 is a very big deal.

Anonymous said...

Opps, sorry about the misspelling of your name.

Bob Huntley said...

Anon

It seems to me that the price at the pumps is very manipulated. I was down in Toronto a couple weeks ago and I saw something I have never seen before .05 (per liter) difference between stations within sight of each other. Where I live the price of the gas sold at the local Superstore (Loblaws super market chain that is quite large) keeps the price low in the area. If not for them the price of gas would jump .03 per liter for sure. Their pricing is competitive even with Costco in another town not far away.

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Lol

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B.Poster said...

Its hard to fathom what Iran thinks they are going to accomplish with this. They appear to be flailing about desperately hoping to accomplish something. It appears someone really has their number and has them scared. IMHO this someone would be president Trump and his team.

IMHO seizing oil tankers is not going to win friends and influence people. The British were/are a staunch supporter of Iran and would have done all they could oppose any actions against by the US against Iran at least before the Iranians started seizing their oil tankers. Germany and France appear to be having second thoughts as well.

This situation has provided a huge opportunity for anyone who can provide security for shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. With this in mind the US is currently in talks with other nations on a proposal led by America that would do just that. While there is still much to be worked out, Iran has done nothing that I can tell to act in a manner to try and reduce tensions that they inflamed. As such, I would anticipate the US effort to get this established will succeed. When combined with the extraordinary cunning and competence of the Trump Administration with the wide latitude that will be afforded the Navy under president Trump, I think the odds are very high that the effort will succeed. Essentially America is going to become the indispensable nation in the Middle East and the world. This combined with fracking has the potential to not only allow the US to become the world's most powerful and influential country. Not only this but the US could become the world's most powerful and influential country in the history of the world.

Essentially by these actions Iran has driven the world into the arms of America. As the editor has pointed out, currently all roads in the Middle East lead to Russia. I would say that Russian leadership CANNOT be happy about the actions taken by their Iranian ally.

There is another possibility. China could provide the security. This allows Iran to step down from this strategic blunder in a face saving manner and China gets lucrative oil deals with Iran out of this. I think it was James who suggested this. However I think the scenario I suggested is the most likely and this turn of events all came about because Trump and his team had the courage to resist the horrible deal put in place by Obama and his team. I would say a strategic blunder indeed by Iran!!

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