Wednesday, August 21, 2019

China's Economy Continues To Slow Down


Zero Hedge: Chart Of The Day: China's Economy Slows To 4.6% In June

According to Fathom Consulting, a global independent macro research consultancy, it's proprietary China Momentum Indicator 2.0 has slowed to 4.6% in June, the lowest reading since Aug. 2016.

There is also a growing gap between the China Momentum Indicator 2.0 at 4.6% and official GDP data at 6.2%. Might suggest China's economy hasn't yet bottomed, could continue to decline through 2H19 into 1H20.

Gary Cohn, the former chief economic advisor to Donald Trump, has said the slowdown predates the trade war and reflects a strategic decision by China to rebalance the economy.

Fathom notes that China's economy was even slowing before the rebalancing.

Read more ....

WNU editor: The above analysis is what I am hearing from my friends and business contacts in China. The only exception is that my contacts are telling me that the real Chinese GDP is between 2 and 3 percent. But what caught my eye in this post from Zero Hedge is the last paragraph ....

.... And for more bad news, China has said its re-balancing will continue through 2020 and offered a pessimistic view of how Beijing won't sign a trade deal until after the November 2020 election. This would almost guarantee China is allowing its export economy to weaken while stimulating its domestic economy, all in the attempt to trigger a recession in the U.S. to diminish President Trump's probabilities of getting reelected.

2 comments:

Roger Smith said...


Having watched Greenspan and Bernanke's economic manueverings and surprise at the results in the case of Bernanke, this decision by the Chinese government seems fraught with the potential for hard times for workers who have enjoyed unprecedented prosperity heretofore unknown to the general population.
I would expect selling of US debt for funding the stimulus. Maybe even a ghost city or two?

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