Tuesday, August 13, 2019

President Trump: U.S. Intelligence Has Informed Me That The Chinese Government Is Moving Troops To The Border With Hong Kong

WNU Editor: This tweet confirms earlier reports of Chinese military movements. No reports yet that they are crossing the Hong Kong border.


Anonymous said...

Chinese gov analysts (after watching CNN to inform their strategy) "we should double down, he not smart, lets use military to club down protestors, show our might! haha smart, smart! cnn will help, will draw comparison to him and hitler"

*trump puts spotlight on whats going on, whole world watches now, he himself brings 50 million twitter followers, 500 TV networks*

China makes mistake after mistake after mistake and CNN tells us trump is the dumb one. Trump is hitler. Right

Publius said...

I fear that we are about to see a bloodbath in Hong Kong.

The attempt to extinguish Hong Kong's freedoms in tiny steps, each individually too small to trigger resistance, failed. For better or worse, the extradition bill triggered resistance. Now withdrawal of the bill altogether (which has not been offered by the authorities) would not calm the demonstrators. I doubt that the resignation of the Hong Kong executive (which both she and the Chinese Government have rejected) would calm the situation now.

I think that the Chinese Government will analyze this situation as follows:

1. If we grant concessions to the demonstrators now, such concessions would be seen as weakness by the population in Hong Kong. Thus, concessions would only stimulate more sweeping demands (e.g. independence for Hong Kong?) which we would have to reject.

2. If we grant concessions to the demonstrators now, such concessions would be seen as weakness by the population of all of China. Our people in the mainland would say: if Hong Kong obtains freedom "X" or "Y", why can't we have that freedom also? We cannot grant such freedoms without endangering the "leading role" of the Communist Party.

3. Therefore, we must crush the Hong Kong protesters now, before the contagion spreads. Many people will die, but we have more than 1.2 billion people, so we will not create a labour shortage.

4. In the aftermath of the bloodbath, Hong Kong's role as a financial center in Asia will be damaged, perhaps destroyed. This will be unfortunate and will cost us money. But Hong Kong as a financial center can be replaced, perhaps by Shanghai. [Note:I am not sure that China is right about this element of their calculation, because I think ordinary contracts are more enforceable in Hong Kong than in the rest of China.] But we (the authorities on the mainland) have trillions in reserves, and people will still want to buy our cheap exports, even after a bloodbath.

5. Whatever the financial cost, the alternative is that the central Government may topple if they do not show strength now against the demonstrators. The fall of the Chinese Government could result in financial ruin and death for us, and avoiding that result is worth any price.

Anonymous said...

Support Communist dictatorship and squash the attempt at democracy and freedom! you go, Publius, who, in 1776 would have said the same thing for the Boston Tea Party people..

Anonymous said...

Lol this is fun to watch ..weird Trump is pointing spotlight on dictatorship with his tweet just now, how China sends troops to Hong Kong. .yet for two years - in orchestrated fashion - we're told he is the dictator. Despite this. Despite what he's trying to accomplish world wide, in North Korea.. Parrot, how embarrassed are you by now? It mud be tough to wake up. I made you coffee ; )

James said...

Yes, but they may have waited too long for their calculus to work.

Anonymous said...

now let us look at Trump and Russia and Putin!!

Anonymous said...

That's standing up for freedom, democracy! what a strong message from the leader of the free world

Bob Huntley said...

I think it is a reasonable analysis Publius and besides a weak hand now will impact whatever happens as regards Taiwan.

B.Poster said...

I did not see that Publius was taking a position one way or the other. The analysis put forth seems spot on. There's really very little I could add.

What do we know about this "opposition." I'd say we know very little about them. It'd be a good idea to "look before we leap" on who we are going to support, when, and to what degree. Publius analysis seems to me to be based upon "real politik" as opposed to ideology. It would be helpful IMHO if US and "western" leaders based more decisions on real politik instead of ideology.

Depending upon which Forbes analysis is consulted Putin and Xi are number 1 or number 2 as the most powerful people in the world. As such, it likely wouldn't be prudent policy for POTUS or other US leaders to dress the down in public.

As to the notion of POTUS as "leader of the free world," the "free world" is to diverse with conflicting interests to be "led" by a US leader or any other leader not native to or a citizen of that country. The only way this could happen would be by force. Trying to do such a thing INHO undermines our economic and security in tests as well as saps our strength. To the best of my knowledge, president Trump has not referred to himself as "leader of the free world." IMHO this would be the right approach.

While there will be times and places where America and other countries of the "free world" will want to work together, America cannot be expected to lead these nations. Attempting to do such has real potential to breed resentment toward us among these nations. Hopefully president Trump is rejecting such a notion of America as the leader of the free world. Ultimately he is the leader of America. IMHO US leaders who try to "lead" the "free world" ultimately undermine our interests.