Wednesday, September 11, 2019

This Analyst Believes Turkey Could Steal The U.S. Nuclear Weapons At Incirlik

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan greets supporters during a ceremony in Istanbul, June 19, 2019. REUTERS/Murad Sezer

Ahval: Turkey could steal U.S. nuclear weapons at Incirlik - analyst

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s hinting last week at acquiring nuclear weapons left observers envisioning how that might happen, including a possible theft from its NATO ally, said an analysis on Monday in conservative U.S. outlet The National Interest.

Joseph Cirincione, president of the Plowshares Fund, told National Interest reporter Matthew Petti that the threat is real, but not imminent. “If Turkey wanted to build a nuclear bomb, it could,” he said. “It would take decades. It's not something that would happen overnight.”

A U.S. State Department official pointed out that Turkey agreed to never acquire nuclear weapons by signing the nonproliferation treaty.

Soner Çağaptay, director of the Turkey programme at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Petti that Erdoğan’s comments came from his perception that the unipolar world order imposed by the U.S. is collapsing and he can be more aggressive in his neighborhood.

Read more ....

Previous Post: Turkish President Erdogan Says Turkey Needs Nuclear Weapons (September 4, 2019).

Update: Why does Erdogan want nuclear weapons? (Kadri Gursel, Al-Monitor)

WNU Editor: Turkey is definitely unsettling its neighbours with this talk of having nuclear weapons .... Turkey’s Nuclear Bluff Unsettles Neighbors (National Interest).


Anonymous said...

Not gonna happen.

These nukes have multi billion dollar material value and multi trillion dollar risk value.

If Turkey tries this, they will have to kill ALL US soldiers on the ground, which would be an act of war. In this case immediate strikes will happen (including on the station where the nukes are, and a significant area around, ie. nukes will be used if Turkey tries to steal the US nukes and kills American soldiers.. Russia can threaten the US all they want, this is several steps too far to accept any protection threats.. Trump will call for immediate wipe out of a 5square kilometer area, i.e. he will call for a B61 10kilo ton nuke or smaller, with no salt vaping the entire base and surrounding area.

It is a no go for Turkey, even IF they managed to win against the Americans there - and I doubt that.. they would hold out for quite some time. Too long for Erdogan to still be alive.

Anonymous said...

Plus, Putin benefits much more from the status quo, having a radical NATO member.. it just is fun for him and he loves pissing off nato.. this is beyond pissing off.. this is creating a guaranteed hot war if he protects Erdogan in this scenario.

Anonymous said...

Having said all that, one consultant to Erdogan could suggest the typical confusion strategy (it has worked many, many times before).. but I doubt war planers on our side - especially after Erdogan's previous behaviour and rationale to use the uprising against him to execute and imprison thousands of teachers etc.. he is clearly a bit unstable and has clearly too strong ties to extremists and Putin.. so people are certainly considering the "lets just use confusion" strategy he might consider, e.g. Erdogan, much like the Russian paramilitary invasion playbook we saw in the Ukraine could pretend another uprising takes place and these damn radicals or terrorists (as he will call them) just invaded the American base. Those bastards.. and he will of course say they got away, but some got killed (which they will of course fighting the Americans).. and they will wear non-Turkey uniforms etc.. but same result - the American nuke will come and will come fast and hard.

Imagine you could storm the base, take out all the troops there and make it to the bunker where the nukes are.. it would under best case scenarios take hours.. 8-12 likely more even with overwhelming force.. and within the first minute the equivalent of distress/mayday would go out.. think something along the line of a broken arrow. We saw what happens many times over how fast the military scrambles when a sub with nukes goes missing in accidents.. now within an attack scenario, holy shit.. bomber pilots will pop their amphetamines and pop over there on afterburners and unleash hell we haven't seen for quite some time.

The loss would be on Turkey's (and Putin's) side: Turkey would IMMEDIATELY be kicked out of nato, would immediately loose access to world markets, immediate embargo, immediate declaration of war if they do not back down. Full on war. No joke. Like end of Turkey scenario if they start this AND keep fighting. No turkish man with honour would want to support such a Pearl Harbour like attempt, unless they are suicidal and mislead at the same time. BUT our side would absolutely support the use of limited nukes in case they kill americans to steal the nukes. And massive conventional firepower on top. A10s,F15es,F35s,F22s,Raptors,Aircraft carries, Triad Subs, holy shit.. the entire world would skip new year's firework celebrations for several reasons in that year.

It would be the single fastest, most devastating war result between a tier 1 and tier 2.5 power. S400s or not. Won't help for longer than 2 hours, if at all.

Anonymous said...

Would they carry thru on their threat?

Hard to say. They could be bluffing, but you average Turk is more honest than your average Democrat.

I saw one study that Turks had about 33% Turkish ancestry. Poor dudes are more Greek than Turkic.

Still, it beats out front runner Amerind Elizabeth Warren's claim of 1 in 1024th South American Indian ancestry.

Anonymous said...

why do you make a public ass of yourself?
the average Democrat? do you mean all those who served our nation in our military, like so many of my friends? what the fuck have you done

Anonymous said...

Those people aren't Democrats. They are transitioning. The party left them.

Anonymous said...

PALS on the B-61 makes stealing them useless, Turkey wouldn't know the codes to make them work. Plus while the base was under attack, maintainers on base would activate the self destruct system frying the electronics. So Turkey destroys its relationship with the USA and its allies for nothing. Its economy will be sanctioned to death, like North Korea and for sure the US will retaliate force on force.

Not happening. Of course those nukes ought to be sent back to the USA.

Anonymous said...

That analyst is living in a fantasy world.

RussInSoCal said...

/Move them to Poland.