Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Editor's Note

It has been a bad day today. We are all OK, it is just what I saw in my part of Montreal today was depressing. Here is a edited recap of what I wrote to a friend this afternoon.

Early this morning I read an economic report from a friend who is very sharp at predicting future macro trends. He works for a major company, and he gave me a copy of what he did. He paints a depressing picture on what is coming down in the next few months, and what the situation will be like next year. And when I looked at the reasoning for his thinking, I could not disagree with any of it. Bottom line. No vaccine for at least 18 months. Multiple waves of Covid-19 cases during this time. Most small-medium sized businesses failing. Some big companies will fall. A very strong possibility of deflation followed by high-inflation. High unemployment and astronomical personal debt will be the norm.

Reading this report occupied a good part of my morning. And to say that I was upset at what I read is an understatement. I lived through the hard times in Russia in the early 1990s. I do not want to see the same thing happening to Canada or to the U.S. right now. The people of these two great nations do not deserve it.

I then started to read up on my local news. The first article that I read was a story of a family who cannot locate their deceased mother who died from Covid-19, and the placement of a refrigerated truck in the parking lot at my local hospital. According to the article (link here), the truck was put there in case the morgue cannot take any more bodies.I shuddered when I read this. It could be anyone. It could be me. It could be you.

It was then that I decided to take the car and do some errands. Enough was enough. I needed some fresh air.

The first thing that I saw were 30 to 40 people lined-up outside of a supermarket that I always use. And the line was not even moving.

Another super-market a block away and one that I use all the time was closed. When I approached the people in front of the store they told me that some of the employees tested positive for Covid-19.

Two pharmacies near my home same story. One closed, the other had a long long long line-up outside.

It then gets worse.

Two families that I have known for years and who run successful businesses are now facing ruin. (One is a hi-end gym that I go to all the time, and the other is a family business that sells products for sail/motor boats). Both of them called me within one hour of each other. They want to know if I can help bail them out. But I know enough about their businesses to know that they will fail. Customers are not going to go to a gym for a long time. And my nautical friends are already too much in debt. When it comes to business I am always blunt. It must be the Russian in me. Needless to say my phone conversations did not end well.

But the best was the last. I had some checks to deposit so I went to my commercial bank. Security was controlling how may people can enter the bank, and there were at least 50 people waiting. To say they all looked frustrated, upset, and hostile is another understatement. I just wanted to use the ATM machine to make a deposit. But the security guard told me that the ATMs were not working, and he was right. That is why there was a long line-up outside. I then noticed the ATM machine beside the bank (which is used by people with cars) was empty, and I asked the security guard if it was working. He said no. I still went to check because I was definitely not going to wait an hour to go into a bank to make a deposit. But when I went to this ATM I noticed that it was working!!! Happy me I put in my bankcard, took my checks, and made my deposit. When I took my card out and it gave me my receipt is when everyone in the line-up realized that this ATM machine was working. They all rushed to the machine resulting in yelling matches and two fights. And the worse were the women. This was a mob of regular people completely out of control. Needless to say I rushed out of there right-away.

Sighhhh ....

People are very angry/frustrated/upset out there. The media is not covering it. Definitely not in this part of Canada.

I am driving up north to my chalet to get away from all of this. My home in Montreal is secure, but I will feel more safer in the woods far away from everyone. This pandemic and the hardships that it is causing is starting. I shudder when I think of what I may be seeing 6 months from now if this does not solve itself.

Blogging will return later this evening.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

The mood in Saskatchewan is not as bad. Granted, I haven't gone to the bank or supermarket, other than online orders, in quite sometime. I do know the supply chain is breaking. The reality is that we cannot shutdown indefinitely. People are going to get sick. People are going to die. Unfortunately, we won't be able to avoid that reality. I hope our governments hold China accountable for this, but I suspect most Western politicians will be deflecting or kissing ass pretending China is our saviour.

Anonymous said...

Down here in San Diego people are starting to get weary of the isolation, especially as the weather improves. I have a school behind my house (which is fenced off and locked up) but the alley is extra wide so every day people take their kids to the alley to ride bikes and skateboards, and on Saturday a couple of guys had strung up a tennis net across the alley and were playing a pretty intense match. People will find a way to get out, to push the edges of confinement, its just funny that the alley ways have become the new parks and recreation areas, while all other open spaces are closed down. I'm almost considering putting up a GoPro on my back fence and record the activities going on back there, which honestly are like a breath of fresh air to see.

Jeffsmith said...

That sounds cool. It's business as usual here in Ohio. We do defense work so there is no stopping. I took my daughter to the park and they removed the basketball hoops. We played without a net.😁😝

Crusader said...

New Zealand went (relatively) hard from the outset (possibly two weeks too late), but we're coming out of this relatively unscathed (we have 13 dead).
We are an island. We are relatively self-sufficient.
Here's how things will work out:
Hardest hit has been tourism and small businesses.
Tourism: A regional 'bubble' is being set up (New Zealand, Australia and some Pacific Islands). Tourism between these locations will resume in the next month or two. This might save the airlines, tourism and hotels.
Small business - I'd say a quarter will fail. These were marginal businesses at best (restaurants, shops etc). Many were reliant on foreign students (especially in the CBD) as well as educational companies.

My only summation (with hindsight); going hard early on was the only way to beat this. CLose borders and restrict movement. Unfortunately, leadership has been lacking (I'm not knocking Trump or Trudeau), this was all new.

Mr WNU's, I feel for you. It must have been depressing.

I'm off to my holiday home next week with the family to ride the final part of NZ's CV-19 experience out. I'll move my office there. At least the fishing's good...

Jac said...

This looks like 1929 and it will finish by war.

Amp1776 said...

Godspeed.

Layguy said...

The oldest trick in governance.

Anonymous said...

"It could be me. It could be you."

No, not really. I think you lost your nerve. I think you worry about your mother as you should. If it was just you, you would not be nearly as worried and you might nearly have nerves of steel.

They have identified 198 different types of influenza virus. Which means if their surveillance is for naught, they have about a 2% of getting the "vaccine" right. They say even with a flu shot 40% of the people still suffer. Maybe it is because corona, influenza and other respiratory viruses usually tag team.

Figure that there are about as many corona virus types. We probably have seen them all in the the different continents at one time or another in the last 200 years and probably several times for each one. Corona has been with us, we just had not identified it with any regularity until now, due to the cost and paucity of testing.

I remember driving to a camp for a day trip South of the border. The old man say a butcher shop with plucked chickens hung out for display. He was not a happy camper. He was afraid of those chickens because of all the respiratory diseases they carry and did not think that it was proper to display them like that. But hey, what did he know? He grew up on a farm. These diseases have always been around us. We just did not name or identify them properly.

RussInSoCal said...

I live in the San Clemente, CA radius. I'm sorry to hear of the anger and mal-contentedness described by WNU in Montreal. Sounds ugly.

I've yet to see any pushing or shoving on my trips to the grocery store, hardware store or bog box outlets. In fact people seem to be going out of their war to be just a little more patient and courteous. My days are spent generally doing some deferred home maintenance, working out in my improvised "home gym" and yard work. Lots pof yard work actually. And probably a little too much drinking.

My neighborhood is of the classic southern California suburbia variety. I have the good luck to have great neighbors with whom I'm on friendly terms with. One block over, there lives a studio musician who holds block concerts with Blues and classic rock covers. And that's pretty cool!

I'm aware that circumstances can change and things could get worse. Catastrophic even. I don't have a mountain cabin or vacation home to go to. so I've got to stick it out here. I've prepped as best I can and I'm hoping for the best. And I do believe that the US and Canada will bounce back to normalcy much faster than a lot of people think.

Just be wary of those who stubbornly adhere to "shut down" and "new normal" type scenarios. They are not benevolent and would be happy to see a drastic change for the worse in the US and Canada.

Take it one day at time and don't get excited.



Hans Persson said...

I haven't noticed anything here in the northern part of Sweden. Business as usual.

Anonymous said...

You have not noticed anything different because it is just flu season. Where I live they are laying off hospital staff.

Hucksters needs to be in a gibbet for lying to the public.

Anonymous said...

In France, riots have just been started in several cities.

Mike Feldhake said...

Needed a place to post this; some good news;

https://www.oann.com/coronavirus-outbreak-in-u-s-on-track-to-be-less-severe-than-this-years-seasonal-flu/

copley7 said...

Hi, that is sad to read your synopsis. I live in Nashua, NH, population roughly 90,000+- and here it has remained calm and livable. We have had no scenes like you are describing, that I know of anyway. Bank drive throughs and ATM's are fully operational. If you have to go into the bank you need an appointment. All supermarkets are up and running, most shortages appear to have alleviated. All use social distancing and many folks now wear a mask outside, and inside the markets. Crime has not spiked except for car break ins, those are happening allot it seems, mainly at night.

I have 3 family members with Covid-19, 2 in law enforcement in NY. Both recovered without ant issue, but ones wife had a horrific time, she's just starting to move around. My 91year old mom lives with my brother, he literally has her in a bunker in her in Brooklyn. He said the constant sirens drive him crazy.

I do see many businesses like gyms, movie theaters, many restaurants not reopening. I like my gym but with Summer coming I can run, hike or walk outside. No need for a gym. People will not out to eat until they see that it appears safe. Malls will be in a deep hole, I see many going under. Smart move not to bail your friends out. Reinforcing defeat is never a good idea.

I once gave substantial money to a close friend to help her out of a serious financial spot during the "Great Recession". Figured I'd never see it again. I never brought it up and a few years letter she repaid the total amount. Thanking me profusely for the money.

Across the border in Massachussetts it is a Covid-19 disaster rivaling NY. Thousands sick and dead, bodies piling up etc. We could probably start reopening but everyone is deathly afraid of the citizens of Mass running up here and spreading the virus in small towns and campgrounds. They are not equipped to handle it medically and emergency services wide. We are staying closed to protect us from Massachussetts!

Good luck in your chalet. Don't go to Montral if it will depress you like that.