Thursday, June 4, 2020

Tweets For Today













9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sweden Proves the Lockdown Was Unnecessary

" Asked why 4,000 people had died in Sweden instead of 90,000, he said, "

“Well, I think that’s an interesting question.”

" Now, in 2009 (that’s 11 years ago) one of this clown’s models — Neil Ferguson, one of his models — predicted 65,000 people could die from the swine flu outbreak in the U.K. The final figure was below 500. So the question remains, “Why does this guy continually get cited? Why is he listened to?” "


So, I have to ask, why the COVID scare stories?


I see that Reuters is not 100% bad. They note that 42.0% have recovered. Maybe they could report how many people recovered after having contracted COVID and 4 weeks has passed. That number would be in the 90+ percentiles.

Also the anti-chloroquinine story fell apart. It was published in Lancet, which may be more respected than the New England Journal of Medicine. Lancet is still #1, but how many more hits can it take like that and still be a periodical of record?


When a person like Ferguson get called on bad model prediction, serially bad, and comes up with "Now that is an interesting question.", you now he is dissembling.

Why Dr. Fauci would believe a person with such a bad track record, calls into question his acumen.


(a) All model are wrong. Some are useful.

(b) Another adage is that all models will fail and will fail worse the farther out they predict.

Okay, I can accept that Ferguson was wrong. The problem is and what should be job ending is, how wrong he was.

They have quantitative measure of model predictions to reality. Some of these are MAPE, MAD and MRSE.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_N5_vxs8Tg

I am willing to bet that WNU and many readers have access to Excel and could perhaps calculate the MAPE, MAD or MSE of these bad model predictions.

Anonymous said...

"Were these protests and riots spontaneous or preplanned and organized? Why were pallets of bricks delivered into the protest zones in Dallas, Chicago, Manhattan and other cities? Did they just fall out of the sky?"

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