Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Is President Trump's Approval Rating Cratering In His Final Days? My Analysis Of The Polls Says No

United States President Donald Trump's account: Jim Bourg/Reuters 

WNU Editor: It is interesting to watch and read the debate that is ongoing over President Trump's approval numbers. 

On the one hand there is Rasmussen's Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (the only pollster who is doing daily polls) showing President Trump's approval numbers ranging from 46% to 49% since last week (link here). Their methodology on how they conduct their tracking poll has not changed since the election, and it should be pointed out that Rasmussen was one of the most accurate pollsters in predicting the 2020 Presidential election. 

On the flip side the main stream media's polls are telling a different story. That President Trump's support is cratering .... Trump's approval rating craters in final days (Politico). 

But when I closely looked at their results and the methodology that these polls used .... a different story emerges. 

The PBS/Marist Poll says President Trump's approval numbers are 38%. But the same poll also says that a majority of Americans are against the impeachment of President Trump (link here). That is something that the media is avoiding to report. What is even more remarkable about this poll, is that it is heavily skewed towards Democrats, with Republicans making up only 28% of the sample!!! 

The same can be said about the Quinnipiac University poll. Basically the same result but with an even smaller Republican sample size .... 26%!!!!! (link here). 

But I leave the best for last. The Reuters/Ipsos poll says fifty-seven percent of Americans want Republican President Donald Trump to be immediately removed from office.. Majority of Americans Want Trump Removed Immediately After US Capitol Violence - Reuters/Ipsos Poll (VOA). But when I looked at how they came to that result, my mouth dropped. They choose to sample 34% who voted for the President, and 66% who did not or would not say!!!! The surprise is not that 57% want President Trump removed. The surprise is that it is not 66%. 

So who to believe? 

Politico admits that the PBS/Marist poll and the Quinnipiac University polls (as well as many others) were completely off in predicting the 2020 Presidential election link here

And as for the Reuters/Ipsos poll. They were the worse, predicting a massive Biden tsunami only weeks before the election (link here). 

Rasmussen' polls were only off by 1%. Predicting a 3% advantage for Biden over Trump on election day. In the end Biden won with a 4% lead.

So what is my analysis based on the above.

President Trump's approval and support from his base has not changed. His support is more solid than what the media is saying.


Anonymous said...

Biden Nominates Flynn Unmasker Samantha Power to Lead USAID

After all the corruption we learned about in Ukraine, people need to watch the foreign aid to see how much money flows back to Washington and the various families and clans.

A fox has been set up to watch the hen house.

I wonder how many countries are literally terrified by this appointment.

Anonymous said...

According to Morning Consult Political Intelligence daily tracking conducted Tuesday before the melee at the Capitol and again in the aftermath on Thursday, Trump’s approval rating fell 6 percentage points among Republican voters, to 78 percent, while the share who disapproved of his job performance rose 7 points, to 21 percent.

Trump supporters are one thing; those voters not registered as GOP important to elections not noted in this post nor of course Dems. It is then the overall Like/Dislike rather than within his own party that truly matters.

Amp1776 said...

when is leftist media lying? all of the time.