Monday, April 14, 2014

Numerous Clashes Between Civilians Now Being Reported Throughout Eastern Ukraine

My Comment: After seeing the above video .... I called my aunt who lives in the Ukraine city of Kharkiv where that video was taken. She has told me that the situation has deteriorated badly in the past 2 days. Neighbors are now going against neighbors. There is no authority but the mob. Where she lives the neighbors have banded together to make sure that the violence does not touch them .... unfortunately .... and this is what got my aunt upset .... the crisis is now even impacting her grand-children's high school. The interim government in Kiev .... in their incredible stupidity .... have now made it mandatory that all schools teach Ukrainian .... and that Russian is now banned. Russian families are outraged (at least my aunt is) .... and the blow-back is now happening everywhere .... including in the schools. I asked her if there are Russian special forces involved in instigating this violence .... she told me bluntly no. This is neighbor going against neighbor .... with certain areas now becoming designated no-go zones. She is deeply worried. She hears that people are arming themselves, and everyone is now expecting the worst .... including her.

I had this conversation with my aunt about ten hours ago ..... and I have been reflecting on it for the entire afternoon. And then it hit me .... what she told me is what a Serbian friend told me years ago on the eve of the Yugoslav civil war .... "neighbor going against neighbor".

The next few days are going to be crucial .... and I hope that some form of agreement will be reached that will de-escalate the crisis. But .... I am now reconciling myself to the realization that this is probably not going to happen. The Ukrainian nationalists who now run the interim government do not care what their policies and actions are causing .... and on the flip side .... Putin does not care what happens in Ukraine as long as it remains subservient and obedient to Moscow .... especially if Moscow is paying the bills .... and if not .... to make sure that they are squeezed.

Two stupid sides .... hell bent because of history to despise and hate each other .... and in the end .... it will be the common person and his family who do not care about politics but do care about living a life of peace .... who in the end will suffer.

On a side note .... my father was born in Ukraine from Russian parents. He loved Russia and Ukraine .... and considered himself a citizen of both. He fought for 4 long years against the Nazis and their Ukrainian supporters in the hope that something good will come out of it in the end .... and for those acts he suffered greatly for the rest of his life .... but he always felt that what he did was the right thing to do. I am glad that he is not alive today. He would be heartbroken to see what is happening .... and what is probably now going to unfold.


James said...

" and in the end .... it will be the common person and his family who do not care about politics but do care about living a life of peace .... who in the end will suffer."
Almost with out fail. Hope your family and friends have or find safe harbor. This thing now has something of a life of it's own and could go anywhere. My guess is Putin's now waiting for the moment to be the one who brings the violence to an end. He's a fairly cool and smart customer, but I hope he's figuring this one right. I keep having this feeling the Ukraine is not main event of the next couple of years, merely the prelim.

War News Updates Editor said...

Thank you James for your thoughts. I just went to Western Union and wired money to my aunt so that her kids and grand-kids can get out. She is going to stay put but everyone else is going to Wyazma (outside of Moscow) that is my mom's hometown.

As to the crisis itself ... behind all the bluster, threats, and warnings .... I still do not believe that Moscow is eager to go into Ukraine. To most Russians .... including myself .... Ukraine is one big massive mess. It is a mess politically, economically, socially .... and if Russia gets involved directly .... will end up being responsible for sorting it all out. That responsibility will include keeping the peace with tens of thousands of soldiers, spending tens of billions of dollars if not a hundred billion plus to prop up the economy, and .... after all of that .... to then suffer the international blow-back from doing such an operation.

Putin will get involved if the situation descends into civil war .... which everyone is praying will not be the case.

James said...

Good. They to go right now or as soon as possible! The roads and rails can get closed very quickly for military traffic and in this case at any moment.
I pretty much agree with your analysis, but with this caveat, both sides are too far advanced in their moves and positions not to lose a lot of "face" by backing down.