Image grab taken from a video published by the media branch of the Islamic State (IS) group in the Raqa province (Welayat Raqa) on Jan. 3, 2016, purportedly shows an English-speaking IS fighter speaking to the camera at an undisclosed location.
Sharon Behn, Voice of America: Why Is Islamic State So Hard to Beat?
WASHINGTON—Islamic State extremists have been bombed, strafed, derided and pushed back, yet they fight on.
“For ISIS, in very plain English, they don’t give a s--- (don't care),” said Cyril Widdershoven, a Middle East and North Africa security specialist based in the Netherlands.
With a fighting force of anywhere between 25,000 to 60,000, Islamic State militants control millions of people, thousands of square kilometers of land, and terrorize the world.
WNU Editor: Killing them with air strikes is not working .... ‘Kill-Em-All With Airstrikes’ Is Not Working (Defense One) .... because the flow just of new fighters just keeps on coming it .... Flow of Foreign Fighters to Iraq, Syria Unrelenting (VOA). The ground operation is not going well either .... a few hundred ISIS militants in Ramadi held-off thousands of Iraqi soldiers backed by US air power for months before they were driven off .... and even then they are still launching attacks. So .... there is obviously more to this story than what is being told to us .... and my money is on the coalition not having the desire or will to take on the Islamic State .... at least for now.
It's been a phony war because ISIS suits US objectives, to divide the ME. ISIS was allowed by US air to convoy in to Ramadi and other cities. Many US air sorties returned with full bomb load. Somehow the US seems incapable of getting Baghdadi and his staff -- by design. The intel was subverted, with 50 intel agents complaining about it. It's all phony, and Russia called them on it.
ReplyDeleteVery respectfully, it's not phony on the part of the US. What would be fair to say is the US, it's "allies," and Russia and it's allies have a different opinion on how this war needs to be conducted and how this enemy can ultimately be defeated.
ReplyDeleteI do have to give Russia credit and its media supporters credit for the "phony" misnomer when describing US efforts. In the information campaign, Russia is definitely winning right now or so it seems.
In order to stop a convoy, one must first know where the convoy and there will be logistical issues with getting air assets in place to stop it. Also, if non combatant casualties are at a major level, US officials up to and including POTUS are going to be facing war crimes tribunals. This will serve to further limit the ability of the US to carry out military actions.
"Somehow the US seems incapable of getting Baghadi and his staff.." These men are among the best fighters the world has ever seen and they are very, very elusive. Additionally, US HUMINT is generally suspect and in many cases incompetent.
"The intel was subverted..." I agree. If the government were to level with the people about the true magnitude of this threat, the US economy and perhaps much of the world economy would come to a quick halt. As for intelligence agents complaining, I'm generally famillar with this and hardly surprised even though many of them do have an agenda contrary to actually defeating ISIS.
As for dividing the ME, this would not serve US interests. As a major oil importer, the US needs a stable supply of oil at a reasonable price (the current price is probably to low). A divided ME makes the Middle East unstable and over the mid term will have a corrosive effect on the price of oil driving it up. Now the interests of a non OPEC exporter of oil may well be served by a divided ME. Given the general level of incompetence of US leadership at present, they may be unaware of exactly how to go about US interests.
As for why this enemy is tough to beat, this is a very good question which I will try to address in another post as I'm being called away right now.
Daesh is not some of the best fighters the world has ever seen (sigh). The americans are conducting a phony war against daesh and the russians results are showing just that.
ReplyDeleteAnon,
ReplyDeleteThe Russian military is the best in the world. Additionally, America's foreign and domestic policy is often driven by ideological and therefore unrealistic assumptions whereas Russia's does not seem to be. As such, it hardly seems surprising, if we were to learn, that Russia and its allies have been more effective than the US and its "allies" have been.
With that said the Russians still have not defeated this enemy yet. This is a very, very strong enemy. They are some of the best fighters the world has ever seen. Sighing about, hoping it will go away, insulting the American leadership whom many rightly revile for any number reasons, and repeating the Russian information campaign is not going to change this.
I'm going to attempt to explain why this enemy is tough to beat in another post as it may run long.
Why is Islamic State difficult to beat?" This is a very good question. I'm going to try and discuss this briefly. As with complicated issues, it is generally difficult and unwise to try and simplify these things with talking points no matter how clever the talking points may sound.
ReplyDelete1.) When ISIS first appeared, it caught America, at least, by surprise. When US officials did catch on, they greatly underestimated the enemy. This gave ISIS a head start.
2.) Once ISIS got going, it captured and held territory faster than the US military ever could have even before it was badly worn down as it currently is. In order to do this, it would seem ISIS would have needed to have large amounts of support on the ground and they were/are extraordinarily ruthless to those who would think of opposing them. Enemies with excellent fighting capabilities who have large amounts of local support and are ruthless are difficult to defeat.
3.)The US constantly faces a very large and often very hostile media microscope. This makes it very difficult for the US military to operate in a manner necessary to confront this enemy in the optimal manner. Additionally, US officials up to and including POTUS would likely face war crimes tribunals before kangaroo courts if "collateral damage" were deemed to much. This further complicates US actions.
4.) Within the US there is a very, very wealthy, very, very media connected, powerful in the corporate world, and within the government bureaucracy minority who will stop at NOTHING to undermine and ultimately stop pretty much ANY American military operation or any other type of "get tough" approach with most any foreign adversary. The best way around this would be to defeat any enemy quickly. Unfortunately defeating ISIS will not be a quick process. This situation does make things more difficult for American leaders and the military.
5.) US "allies" aren't entirely on the same page. While most seem to understand the threat ISIS poses, there is much disagreement on how to combat it. Furthermore, many (rightly) view Iran as the greater mid to long range threat and think the focus should be here.
6.) Ultimately ISIS will be defeated. By some estimates ISIS lost about 14% of its territory in 2015. This would seem reasonable based upon my knowledge. (There are some more rosy projections out there that don't seem realistic.) Unfortunately at this rate it is going to take a VERY long time to defeat them and the closer to the core we get the harder the fight will be. ISIS has pretty much made everyone who is anyone among the world's power structure an enemy. Additionally the attacks on Paris and the Russian airliner have made it easier for the American military to operate with less fear of media reprisals or war crimes tribunals. Also, the intervention of Russia has negatively affected ISIS as well.
7.) While this is not exhaustive on why ISIS has been difficult to beat, I do believe this is an honest answer to this question. In the future, I'd like to see greater cooperation with Russia in fighting this enemy. Perhaps we could reach some sort of agreement with Russia where we help them in whatever ways we can and in exchange they help us to contain and ultimately defeat Iran. We will need to keep in mind Russia is the most powerful military force in the world. As such, our help is not needed but it could speed up the process and we could improve relations with them.
In point 5 I meant that are some among US "allies" who rightly understand that Iran is a greater mid to long threat than ISIS. As to whether Iran "death to America" needs to be the primary focus right now, there seems to be some disagreement. It does seem to me that Iran is not getting near the attention it should and far to much effort has been made to coddle it by the American leadership rather than understand it for the deadly enemy it currently is.
ReplyDeleteThere is a much effective way to fight Isis fighters than the west in pushing, but require a different approach.
ReplyDeleteFirst of the very definition of terrorism when it comes to warfare doesn't have an objective, and that's why is very elusive .
Terrorism produces an effect, fear.
And the enemy counts on it ,this factor is terrorism Achilles heel.
They only recognize brutal force there for you need to think likewise.
These idiots with AK 47 are not formidable at all. Guerrilla warfare is the effect of not having a regular army
This type of tactics that Isis fighters are using doe's not come through a form of organized offensive .ànd is very ineffective .
Unless you are the Iraqi army .
For example that's why these idiots will never launch an attack on the I D F. Military.
Why ? simply the military school tactically strategically is not there.