Deadly convoy: Dozens of U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons demonstrate an 'Elephant Walk' as they taxi down a runway during an exercise at Kunsan Air Base, South Korea, to practise for a wartime mission. This picture is among a gallery of images chosen to showcase a year in the life of the U.S. Air force in 2012
Stratfor: What the U.S. Would Use to Strike North Korea
Summary
Editor's Note: This is the third installment of a five-part series that originally ran in May 2016 examining the measures that could be taken to inhibit North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The purpose of this series is not to consider political rhetoric or noninvasive means of coercion, such as sanctions. Rather, we are exploring the military options, however remote, that are open to the United States and its allies, and the expected retaliatory response from Pyongyang. Part four can be found here.
No other country can match the United States when it comes to projection of power. Should Washington decide to carry out a military strike against North Korea, even a limited one, the immediate impact would be devastating for Pyongyang. When considering military action, however, it is important to acknowledge the variables and intelligence gaps that inevitably complicate political and military decision-making. Even with the United States' advantage in training, coordination and equipment, complicating factors and uncertainty about the exact locations and dispositions of North Korean assets make complete mission success far from assured.
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WNU Editor: This is what I call "jumping off the cliff".
We could end the NKorean nuke program overnight if we just made a vocal possible green light for both Skorea and Japan to develop their own domestic nuclear deterrent. Especially Japan.
ReplyDeleteChina would lose its sh*t at the mere thought of a nuclear armed Japan and would see NKorea as the direct cause to a major potential threat to China by the consequences of its actions.
China is the only country that could make NKorea change its mind the Norks are their wild dog.
Leverage
Strategic patience ( ie doing nothing) os no longer an option.
ReplyDeleteC-Low,
ReplyDeleteI generally agree with you a nuclear armed South Korea would be an excellent idea that would mesh well with our national defense. I've been suggesting this needed to happen for 20 years. DJT has suggested this possibility before. I'm pleased that someone in a position to actually encourage this may FINALLY be catching on.
I would add to your analysis that such a development would hasten time frame by which the US forces deployed to these countries could be removed. The large US troop deployments is breeding resentment among Americans who feel they are being used by these countries. I'm pretty sure the Japanese and the South Koreans likewise feel resentment at toward the large US deployment. Getting these forces redeployed should greatly improve relations between us and these two important countries, our forces will be deployed where they make strategic sense.
I would also add the patience of the American people and the ability of America to provide such a big portion of the defense needs for Japan and South Korea especially ehen it seems we receive such little appreciation for the enormous sacrifice is growing perilously thin. If I know this, I'm sure the leaders of these countries do as well.
As such, this isn't a matter of us "green lighting" the development of nuclear weapons by these countries. They are ultimately goung to do it anyway no matter what we say or do. Now if we can do things to encourage this, hurry it along, and provide technical assistance to them as needed or requested this would be extremely helpful. Actually assistance from us is probably not needed or would be requested but, if offered, should help foster much needed goodwill with these countries.
I must admit I'm not as sanguine as you seem to be on how China would respond. At least if South Korea and Japan were nuclear armed they'd have a fighting chance, we could redeploy, and relations between us and them should be improved.
Fazman,
You write strategic patience is no longer an option. There is currently no military option that would not be EXTREMELY costly coupled with no guarantee of victory. I suppose we could support China's claims in the South China Sea and in exchange they'd agree to help us with North Korea.
Actually there is an option. Redeploy American troops away from South Korea and Jaoan right now and without delay. Why should Americans be expected to die for dear old South Koreans and Japanese who seem to neither like nor respect them. Furthermore in such a war the US mainland would likely be attacked as it seems unlikely that North Korean operatives or their allies would allow the American mainland to go unscathed.
Substitue "Australia" for "America" and I think you may understand. Actually I look forward to a day when America has leaders who will stand up for America and the American people and not allow our people or resources to be used as pawns in the power struggles of others.
The thing is those power struggles ARE in the stratedgic intrests of the united states or they would not be there.
DeleteThe problem is that previous govts tried it your way and now it may well be to late.
However it is international poker and l beleive your siggestion is to fold and walk away from the table, then ine thing they havent tried is raising the stakes and calling his bluff.
but but china is so pure and they havent helped nkorea in any way, please it is the americans and the rest of the modern world that is at fault for nkorea's actions....please please believe me
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