With Election Day less than a month away, we look at which party will likely control the White House, Senate and House in 2020… and what to watch for on Election Night.
Currently, the major polls give former Vice President Biden more than a 9-point lead nationally against President Trump – according to RealClearPolitics National Average.
And the Predictit markets imply a 67% probability of Biden winning on November 3rd. Additionally, those markets suggest that Democrats will win both the Senate and House (66% and 88% probabilities, respectively). Quite simply, it appears that a Blue Wave is fast approaching, something which the market has not only priced in, but has successfully digested as a favorable narrative for risk assets.
It would be easy to simply close the books and call the November contest over. But, of course, the major polls were all wrong in 2016; notably about the presidential race.
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Update #1: Could It Be Possible That Donald Trump Wins Because of the Shy Vote? (Red State)
Update #2: Oh look: 56% of Americans expect Trump to win the election vs. 40% for Biden despite lame polls showing Biden ahead by a zillion points (Not The Bee)
WNU Editor: Some good analysis in the above Zero Hedge and Red State posts. Bottom line. The US Presidential race is probably far more closer than what the media is saying.
"Alzheimer's disease is a progressive disease that gradually worsens over a period of four to 20 years. On average, however, most people live between four and eight years following diagnosis"
ReplyDeleteDuration of Stages: How Long do the Stage of Alzheimer's / Dementia Last
Life Expectancy by Dementia Type
Dementia Type Life Expectancies
Alzheimer's Disease - 10 years following diagnosis
Vascular Dementia - 5 years following diagnosis
Dementia with Lewy Bodies - 2 to 8 years following pronounced symptoms
This is what Democrats are doing to us. Biden already has 1 year gone . So subtract 1 year form one of the above diagnosis.
If Biden or his walking corpse is elected, we won't know who is running the country. It might be a Democrat, liberal Democrat Socialist Democrat or whoever.
This is not you father's Democrat Party anymore.
WNU Editor; I do not believe it is. I think poles have gotten worse and the Media is ignoring basic facts to spin their narrative. It’s a sorry case for them, stop drinking the cool aid. Here is a list of real issues that will Drive Trump back to the White House;
ReplyDeleteChina
Trade & The Economy
Opening up the US
The Wall / Migrant issues
Far Left
Minority Support
And yes the Swamp
Shocking, positively shocking,
ReplyDeleteNot really, news guys anyone but Trump
Reality well we will see