Oil And War

Today's headlines:

Oil crosses $129 for first time, heads for $130 -- Yahoo News
Oil Rises to a Record After Pickens Says Prices May Reach $150 -- Bloomberg
Opec says oil could hit $200 -- Financial Times
America must face the harsh realities over oil -- Times Online
Every recent post by the blog .... The Oil Drum .... a website that I find incredibly informative and accurate in their forecasts .... paints a very dire picture of oil prices and availability.

With all of these headlines, I then come across this report which makes the following prediction: Oil Future and War Now: A Grim Earth Sciences’ Point of View.

Summarizing, the report says the following:

Worldwide per-capita oil consumption is closely correlated with the standard of living. In developing nations like China and India increasing prosperity therefore requires increased per-capita oil consumption. However, oil is a finite resource whose production globally is about to begin to decline irreversibly. Consequently the growing demand for oil is leading to a growing global conflict in which the Gulf War, the 9/11 attack, and the war in Iraq are just the first three skirmishes. These skirmishes pale in comparison with the looming potential conflict over oil with China.

The complete report in pdf is here.

My Comment: Oil is the lifeblood of our civilization today. It is unfortunate that much of the world's reserves today are in the most unstable of countries. I personally do not believe that shortages of supply and price hikes will precipitate an immediate war, instead I can easily forsee a slow bleed in which falling living standards, economic dislocation, and rising internal tensions in countries that are most vulnerable to oil shocks ..... China and India just to name two ..... can easily escalate over a period of months to a year or two into a major conflict.

My hope is that energy alternatives will become more economical and preferable to oil as it and its byproducts become more scarce and expensive. My fear is that governments ..... always responding to crisis with short term goals in mind ..... will respond in a manner that will make a terrible problem worse.

Other useful articles and links on oil, its future, and consequences for war are the following:
The Oil Drum -- An informative site that discusses energy issues and our future.
The Undeclared Oil War -- A 2004 Washington Post article discussing Japanese and Chinese competition for oil resources.
Oil And War -- A prophetic and informative article from 2003 (John Robb's Weblog).
Oil Wars -- A book by Mary Kaldor , Terry Karl, Yahia Said. The link goes to Avaxhome where it can be freely downloaded.