The End Of the Sri Lankan Civil War Is Now in Sight

Powerful explosions rocked Galle, an important southern tourist and port town in Sri Lanka, apparently extending the war to a stronghold of the Sinhalese majority. The government said suicide boats of the rebel Tamil Tigers, disguised as fishing boats, had been detonated near a navy base.

From Strategy Page:

July 29, 2008: The generals believe that the LTTE is just about finished. Army intelligence estimates that the LTTE has lost two thirds of its military power this year. That includes 9,000 fighters, most of them newly conscripted teenagers. Between losing territory, and Tamils fleeing to government controlled territory, the LTTE only controls about 200,000 civilians in the north. The army believes the LTTE only has about 5,000 armed fighters, and most of these are recently conscripted and poorly trained. The LTTE is also short on ammunition, because of the improved navy interdiction campaign during the last year. The fighting in the north is getting more intense, and causing several hundred casualties a week. But most of these are LTTE losses, and the army has been advancing at the rate of about three kilometers a week.

Read more ....

More News On The Sri Lankan War

Fighting Continues in Sri Lanka Despite Tamil Tiger Cease-Fire -- Voice Of America
Sri Lanka fighting kills 37: government -- AFP
Military: New fighting in northern Sri Lanka kills 34 rebels, 3 soldiers -- International Herald Tribune
Sri Lankan military positions attacked by rebels in north -- China View
Sri Lanka military says kills 34 rebels in fresh fighting -- Reuters
Sri Lankan Army Says Troops Capture Tamil Tiger Satellite Base -- Bloomberg
Lessons from Lanka`s bloodiest year -- SIFY

My Comment: The Strategy Page's analysis on the evolution of the war in Sri Lanka is accurate. The Tiger's LTTE command and control facilities are destroyed or about to be destroyed. Officers have been killed or captured. Most of their soldiers are young and inexperienced. Weapon shipments have been cut, and what they have left is no match for what the Sri Lankan Army has.

This war will be over in all but name by the end of this year. This conflict will now evolve into a terrorist campaign, with small cells bringing the fight to the Sri Lankan military and the majority Sinhalese population.

to truly put an end to this conflict, the Sri Lankan government .... from a position of strength .... should now put out the olive branch for reconciliation. They should meet some of the needs of what the Tamils want .... autonomy, respect of their culture, end of discrimination, etc....

But I have strong doubts and reservations that this will happen. There are no peace makers in Sri Lanka today.