An Analysis Of The Taliban's War Efforts So Far

Inside The Taliban -- Strategy Page

October 1, 2008: While the Taliban appear to be on a roll, internally they are in big trouble. A battle with the Pakistani army in Bajaur is going badly, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud has been sick for months, and recently died, from kidney failure. That means a messy succession struggle to determine the new top dog. Meanwhile, some leaders of the Afghan Taliban have been engaged in secret (well, not so secret anymore) negotiations (brokered by Saudi Arabia) with the Afghan government. These talks are not going well. But now it will get worse, as NATO announced a Winter offensive against the Taliban, taking advantage of the snow, bad weather and lack of mobility the Afghans suffer then. NATO has helicopters and air power, and has increasingly used this edge during the Winter. This year, the Taliban have announced that they will try to keep many of their gunmen operating during the Winter. To do this, you have to use the roads, at least when they are free of snow. That is less of a problem in southern Afghanistan, which is less frigid and snowbound. The smart money is on NATO in this one, and the Afghan Taliban cannot afford yet another loss at this point.

The Pakistanis also recognize that defeating the Taliban is more a matter of symbols than body count. The tribes have several hundred thousand potential recruits along the Afghan border, but only a few percent of those have joined the Islamic radical groups (al Qaeda, Taliban and several others you don't hear the names of much). Many more tribesmen oppose the Taliban, but most of these are not willing to go to war in support of these views. While the pro-Taliban tribesmen believe they are on a Mission From God, the effort is getting discouraging. The national backlash to the Marriott Hotel bombing on September 20th was noted, as are the other defeats. The Taliban are generally unpopular in Pakistan. Yes, the few guys with guns and bad manners will attract the journalists, but in this part of the world, the majority with better manners have guns as well. And increasingly they have been using them to show their displeasure with the Islamic radicals.

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My Comment: With the intensity of the Iraq war going down, more emphasis and focus is being shifted to Afghanistan. This will produce results .... specifically planning and targeting Taliban leaders and facilitators. With Pakistan now focusing on the extremist elements of the Taliban also, the Taliban now find themselves fighting a two front war against a superior army. Something will eventually break.