Is Russian Influence Expanding?

Russian army soldiers are seen at a checkpoint in Kareleti. Russian troops pulled out of encampments in western Georgia on Saturday as the shooting of a Georgian policeman highlighted tensions over a European disengagement plan. (AFP/Vano Shlamov)

After War, Russia's Influence Expands
-- Christian Science Monitor

The war with Georgia has many calling for North and South Ossetia to unite.

Vladikavkaz, Russia - Boris Samoyev, a driver from war-torn South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali, pulls his car over to allow a convoy of Russian military trucks to roll past. The trucks are heading south into the Roki Tunnel, which connects the republics of North and South Ossetia.

"The Russians have helped us so much. They came when the Georgians were beating our door down, and drove them back," Mr. Samoyev says. "We Ossetians have always been loyal to Russia, and they have proven that we made the right choice."

Though Moscow threw relations with the West into crisis by striking with massive force when Georgia attempted to seize breakaway South Ossetia in August, the impact in Russia's turbulent, multiethnic northern Caucasus appears to be in the Kremlin's favor – at least for now.

Many experts in North Ossetia, the most important of the seven ethnic republics in this troubled region because of its historic and current loyalty to Moscow, say Russia would have risked disaffection if it hadn't acted to protect South Ossetia.

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My Comment: Russia may appear to be on top .... but the facts on the ground are different. Russia is experiencing numerous ethnic separation movements, some of them becoming violent. Its arm forces are years behind in modernization, and the population itself is undergoing a demographic collapse. The economy is based on oil prices, and is vulnerable in the event of a downturn.