Will Iran Conduct Aggression If It Has No Choice To Survive -- A Commentary

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Under Pressure, Acting Foolish? -- Westhawk

In his latest post at Asia Times, the always-fascinating blogger Spengler forecasts a period of global mayhem, beginning on Russia’s periphery, running across Latin America, and on from Turkey to Pakistan. Spengler asserts that the global financial panic will soon result in desperate decisions taken by desperate leaders.

Of particular note, Spengler repeats his forecast of overt Iranian aggression. The crash in the price of oil, combined with Iran’s looming crash in the number of military-aged males, means the regime must act quickly before its time and financial resources run out:

Nonetheless, Iran has created the strongest Shi'ite presence since the original battles that determined the succession to the Prophet Mohammed. It can watch the Shi'ite cause fade away with the price of oil, or it can attempt to use its capabilities before they are lost for another thousand years. Nothing at all that we know of the Iranians indicates that they would go quietly into another long night of Sunni oppression.

Iran's leaders, in short, find themselves in a position similar to, but more urgent than, the one that Adolf Hitler described to his senior commanders three weeks after the German invasion of Poland. I have quoted this before, but it deserves to be tattooed onto the foreheads of analysts who think that economic weakness reduces the likelihood of armed conflict.

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