Chechnya And Its Neighbors Suffer A Relapse

On Aug. 17, a blast at the police headquarters in Nazran, the capital of Ingushetia, killed 25 people and wounded 280. A period of calm has ended in Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan. Kazbek Vakhayev/European Pressphoto Agency

From The New York Times:

MOSCOW — Just a year ago, Russian authorities were so proud of their success at bringing order to the north Caucasus that they made Chechnya a stop for the Valdai Discussion Club, the handpicked group of Western analysts flown to Russia every year to hobnob with top officials.

Two busloads of writers and academics were shuttled to the gigantic mosque built by President Ramzan A. Kadyrov in memory of his father, granted a wide-ranging interview with Mr. Kadyrov and allowed to stroll down the repaved, repainted and rebuilt streets of Grozny, the Chechen capital. Even the skeptics among them left impressed: calm, it seemed, had returned to Russia’s crucible of violence.

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My Comment: When the Russian - Georgian war broke out last year, Russian government pundits were saying that this was necessary to keep the peace in the Caucasus. That Georgia's actions in the provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia was unsettling peace and stability, and that firm military action was necessary.

This strategy has not worked, and as predicted the security situation is rapidly deteriorating.

This is still a low intensity conflict, but the trend is starting to worry many in Moscow.

With Russia being the host to the Winter Olympics at Sochi in 2014 .... a site that is on the border of the Caucasus region .... any escalation in the conflict will directly impact the security of the Olympics. A prospect that I am sure many officials do not want to ponder on.