Commentaries, Opinions, And Editorials -- July 2, 2013

The Egyptian Military's Playbook -- Jeff Martini, Foreign Affairs

Why The Generals Will Tread Carefully This Time

In 2011, it took several rounds of protests before the chanting on the Egyptian street for “bread, freedom, and social justice” morphed into “down with the regime.” This time, the demonstrators had that goal in mind all along. In some ways, this week’s events do seem like a sped-up version of the January 25 Revolution. But June 2013 is not January 2011. The calculus of the Egyptian military, for one, is much more complicated. Having intervened once and gotten burned in the process, the generals are likely to be a lot more circumspect this time around.

The Egyptian military is still licking its wounds from the year and a half in which the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces directed Egypt’s transition to democracy. Today, Egyptian demonstrators may be yelling irhal (leave) at President Mohammad Morsi, but the military leadership hasn’t forgotten that many of the same demonstrators were shouting yasqut hukm al-asker (down with military rule) during the SCAF’s stint in power. That is not to say that the military’s ultimatum on July 1, in which it gave Morsi 48 hours to meet the protests’ demands, is empty. But if it does intervene, expect the military to steer a different course than it did in 2011.

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Commentaries, Opinions, And Editorials

Could Egypt be Headed for Civil Conflict? -- Cecily Hilleary, Voice of America

Army Coup in Egypt -- History Repeating -- Ariel Ben Solomon, Real Clear World/Jerusalem Post

How Egypt's President Precipitated a Crisis -- Sarah A. Topol, Bloomberg Businessweek

Is Obama Losing Egypt Again? -- Jonathan S. Tobin, Commentary

Egypt's Second Revolution -- Hafez Ghanem, Real Clear Politics

John Kerry’s Bid for Mideast Peace Is Doomed -- Jeffrey Goldberg, Bloomberg

Turkey Betrays NATO Again -- Michael Rubin, Commentary

Talking with the Taliban? -- Patrick Christy and Evan Moore, US News and World Report

Why Real Reform in China Can No Longer Wait -- Zhou Qiren, Real Clear World/Worldcrunch

Pakistan wants to talk to its Taliban, but doesn't know what to say -- Umar Farooq, Christian Science Monitor

Once a divisive pariah, Myanmar may be key Southeast Asian key to unity -- Simon Roughneen, Christian Science Monitor

Has Foggy Bottom Forgotten Asia? -- Ely Ratner, Foreign Policy

Africa's starvation and tyranny are ending. That's where the tough part begins -- Doug Saunders, The Globe and Mail

Edward Snowden Loses Patriot Games to Putin -- Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg

Obama risks excessive secrecy -- News Observer