Wednesday, October 30, 2013

The Next Major Syrian Battle Will Be In al-Qalamoun

Supporters of Hezbollah and relatives of Saleh Ahmed Sabagh, a Hezbollah member, carry the coffin during his funeral in the port-city of Sidon, southern Lebanon May 22, 2013. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho

Hezbollah Prepares for Syria Showdown in al-Qalamoun -- The Daily Beast

The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite movement is readying for a face-off against Syria’s rebels. How the battle will rattle the West.

The Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah is poised to launch a much-anticipated offensive to the north of Damascus in a counterinsurgency campaign that is likely to prompt hand-wringing in Washington and more Saudi frustration with Western inaction in Syria.

The battle for mountainous Al-Qalamoun-a rugged region between the Syrian capital and Homs, the country’s third largest city-will be as significant in military terms when it comes, say diplomats and analysts, as the struggle in the spring for Qusair, a strategic town in sight of Lebanon, that was retaken by the Syrian army thanks to Hezbollah, whose fighters were in the vanguard of the assault.

Qusair’s capture goaded President Obama in June to pledge he would arm the Syrian rebels-a promise that hasn’t been fulfilled because of the administration’s worries about the growing influence of al-Qaeda affiliates in the rebellion against President Bashar al-Assad.

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My Comment: Syria's rebels have been preparing for this offensive for the past few months .... I expect heavy casualties on both sides. But the real danger is what may happen in Lebanon itself. If Hezbollah launches an attack, I expect Sunni loyalists in Lebanon (encouraged by Saudi Arabia) to start targeting Hezbollah targets within their country, and the possibility of a Shiite-Sunni war spreading will then become a reality.

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