Will A Naval Blockade Be Enough To Defeat China In A War?

A color guard of US and Chinese flags awaits the plane of China's President Hu Jintao at Andrews Air Force Base, Maryland in this April 12, 2010 file photo. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters/File

How To Win A War With China -- Sean Mirski, National Interest

The mounting challenge presented by China’s military modernization has led the United States to review existing military strategies and to conceptualize new ones, as illustrated by the ongoing debate over AirSea Battle (ASB), a new concept of operations put forward by the Department of Defense. But in the universe of possible strategies, the idea of a naval blockade deserves greater scrutiny. By prosecuting a naval blockade, the United States would leverage China’s intense dependence on foreign trade—particularly oil—to debilitate the Chinese state. A carefully organized blockade could thus serve as a powerful instrument of American military power that contributes to overcoming the pressing challenge of China’s formidable anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) system. A blockade could also be easily paired with alternate military strategies, including those based on ASB.

In the context of a Sino-American war, the United States could try to take China’s greatest national strength—its export-oriented, booming economic-growth model—and transform it into a major military weakness. To do so, the United States would implement a naval blockade of China that attempted to choke off most of China’s maritime trade. Under the right conditions, the United States might be able to secure victory by debilitating China’s economy severely enough to bring it to the negotiating table.

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My Comment: I have zero confidence that such a conflict would be resolved in such a fashion. A war with China will quickly escalate into a global conflict that will destroy international trade and financial markets. Even if countries are not directly involved in such a conflict .... the economic consequences would be enough to bring global panic and a whole slew of unintended consequences .... of which all of them will be very bad.