China Thinks That It Can Defeat The U.S. In A War

The missile submarine USS ‘Georgia.’ Navy photo

China Thinks It Can Defeat America In Battle -- David Axe, War Is Boring

But Beijing doesn’t seem to take into account U.S. submarines

The bad news first. The People’s Republic of China now believes it can successfully prevent the United States from intervening in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or some other military assault by Beijing.

Now the good news. China is wrong—and for one major reason. It apparently disregards the decisive power of America’s nuclear-powered submarines.

Moreover, for economic and demographic reasons Beijing has a narrow historical window in which to use its military to alter the world’s power structure. If China doesn’t make a major military move in the next couple decades, it probably never will.

The U.S. Navy’s submarines—the unsung main defenders of the current world order—must hold the line against China for another 20 years. After that, America can declare a sort of quiet victory in the increasingly chilly Cold War with China.

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My Comment: I have also noticed this change of posture from China in the past 2-3 years. They have decided to lay claims to vast sea areas that are under dispute, and they have not hesitated in threatening the use of force to enforce these claims. While much of this is probably nationalistic "chest thumping" .... they are complementing this rhetoric with massive increases in their defense budgets .... and they show no signs of backing down. As to the U.S. submarine advantage .... it is true that they can (and probably will) sink a major Chinese naval fleet .... but I doubt that the Chinese will use their forces in such a matter. The Chinese will use air assets to move their forces, and will try their best to avoid this submarine threat ... unless of course we read reports in a year or two of the Chinese investing heavily in anti-submarine hardware.