Russian President Putin Is Holding All The Cards On Ukraine

On Ukraine, Putin Holds All The Cards And Dictates The Timetable -- Haaretz

If Russia invades Ukraine, the timing may be determined by the situation on the ground in Moscow more than the streets of Kiev and Simferopol.

When will we know the Russians have invaded Ukraine? We won’t. Unlike the summer of 2008 when paratroop brigades crossed the border into Georgia’s sovereign territory under the pretext of aiding the Ossetian minority, marines of the Russian Black Sea Fleet are already stationed on Ukrainian soil. The agreement between the two countries not only allows warships to be based at the port of Sevastopol, but also for Russian military vehicles to traverse the Crimean peninsula.

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My Comment: Putin's most important card is economic. Ukraine is facing default now .... while Russia can just bide it's time. But Russia will need to be careful in not overplaying this hand .... a worst case scenario of Ukraine becoming a "failed state" will have long term implications on Russia .... and none of it good.