Image: BBC
Ukraine Crisis: Who Will Blink First, Vladimir Putin Or The West? -- Ulrich Speck, Political Analyst, Special To CNN
(CNN) -- Russia's seizure of Crimea last month may have unfolded with a lightning quickness, but Vladimir Putin and the West are now engaged in a much slower match of wits on a chessboard stretching across most of eastern Ukraine.
Rather than going for checkmate, both sides now seem content to wait for the other to make a mistake. Putin made a strong first move by placing 40,000 troops on the border -- and separatists, who are not officially linked to Russia, on the ground in Ukraine.
Now Moscow is waiting for the pro-Western government in Kiev to try to retake the parts of the east it has seemingly lost. In Russia's eyes, any such move from the capital would legitimize an overwhelming counterattack -- a re-run of the Georgia crisis in 2008, when President Mikheil Saakashvili lost his nerve, shot first, and prompted a Russian invasion.
Read more ....
My Comment: The premise of this article is that it believes that Putin has the power to significantly influence events in eastern Ukraine .... on this point I disagree. I have mentioned more than once in this blog that the people in this region are fiercely independent, and they do not follow anyone's line. It is in this region that the first strikes broke out (among the miners) that help bring down the old Soviet Union. If they did not listen to Moscow then .... what makes anyone think that they will listen to Moscow now.
I suspect that Putin knows the history of this region .... hence this is the reason why there is some hesitation on his part on what to do next. The high costs of such an operation also factors in .... as well as the post-period after an invasion. Ukraine is broke .... and it will require tens of billions of dollar to just stabilize the situation .... money that Moscow is very reluctant to spend. But if the situation in Ukraine implodes .... I can guarantee it that Putin will order the military to invade .... and he will not care who blinks first.
Dear War News Editor:
ReplyDeleteWould you define "implode"? In this comment and in several others you have said that you expect Putin to invade Ukraine's eastern provinces if the situation there "implodes".
In recent days we have seen the collapse of local, regional, and national authority and increasing chaos, riots, and street fighting among pro and anti Russian demonstrators.
If what is already happening in not "implosion", then what is? I ask this question honestly and not as a rhetorical device to make any point.
My definition of implosion is civil war. For the moment .... we have sporadic shootings, riots, people disappearing, occupations, hostages, threats, and .... well you get the picture.
ReplyDeleteImplosion is high casualty rates that will happen if a major city is attacked using modern weaponry, tens of thousands of refugees, fighting in the streets, quickly followed by chaos, fear, and disorder in other regions. I think of Bosnia when the shooting started.
I know Ukraine is getting there .... and what is tragic is that everyone (Kiev, Moscow, the people in the region itself) are driving this crisis over the cliff. In such a chaotic mess .... I know that many in the region will look for a savoir .... and my biggest fear is that this is Putin's long term strategy. He is positioning himself to save Ukraine even though he was one of the instruments that caused the chaos to begin with.
When the Bosnia civil war ended, I got to know some refugees who had fled the country during their conflict. They told me that everyone was hoping for an outside intervention .... from NATO/U.S./anyone .... they did not care .... all that they cared about was an end to the conflict. It did not happen .... because no one cared. In Ukraine .... because of the Russian population that lives there .... Putin does care .... and he will intervene .... but only under the right circumstances. It is these circumstances that scares the shit out of me.