Ukraine vs. Russia: Military Mismatch, But Does That Mean No Contest? -- Space War/AFP
Russia has the world's second-ranked military after former Cold War foe the United States.
The armed forces in Ukraine, a former republic in the ex-Soviet Union, are much, much smaller.
But numbers don't tell the whole story. Other factors come into play in weighing which side might get the upper hand should war break out with a Russian invasion.
Chief among them is the fact that Moscow cannot send its entire military into Ukraine without leaving other parts of Russia defenceless.
And then there is Ukraine's home advantage, with much of the population opposed to Russian domination by force.
Read more ....
My Comment: There are a few parts in this analysis that I disagree with. One .... Ukraine is a deeply divided country .... especially after the corrupt but democratically elected President Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown in February. Many people may not like Moscow .... but many also do not like what has happened (and is happening) in Kiev. What makes this situation worse is that this division is occurring along cultural/linguistic lines .... a poisonous brew that Russia is exploiting to the full. Two .... the Ukraine military is ineffective as a fighting force. Loyalties are split, resources and equipment non-existent and/or broken down, the basics to keep a military moving completely inadequate, and .... more important for many of these young Ukrainian soldiers .... they will be facing a professional military with overwhelming firepower and determination .... a prospect that I will wager most of these young men do not want to find themselves in. Not surprising .... the morale in the Ukraine army (from what I am hearing in Ukraine itself) is almost zero. Three .... Ukraine's population has been traumatized by political and economic instability for years .... everyone is fed up with the poverty and corruption .... and many of them have given up on the political system. I will wager that many will not fight for a system that is corrupt from top to bottom. (4) Russia will not invade Ukraine not because it will be hard (it will not) .... they will not invade it because if they did .... they would then own the mess. Ukraine literally needs tens of billions of dollars in the short term .... as well as a clean and ethical police squad to stamp out the rampant corruption that exists throughout the country. I know that many Russians do not want to be responsible for this .... and I am also confident in saying that Putin does not want to be responsible for this mess either. But in the event that the worse case scenario does unfold and Russia does invade .... it will be because the interim government in Kiev decided to use lethal military force against the cities in eastern Ukraine .... causing bloodshed and a refugee crisis that I know would be totally acceptable to most (if not all) Russians.
Hat Tip: Thank you Benjamin for the Space War/AFP link.
This article highlights the dangers of theorizing with "paper" forces. Plus every prediction comes with a provisional statement.
ReplyDeleteWhen you're out gunned, hungry, and uncertain about the guys leading you and even the guy next to you it's easy to get happy feet.
I agree with the article's observations and wonder whether Putin might also consider the following factors in deciding not to invade:
ReplyDelete1. If Russia sends its army into Ukraine, where do they stop? As I understand it, there are few natural features (rivers, etc.) that would be a logical place to draw new boundaries. The larger the area Russia takes, the more soldiers they need to occupy it. This leads to:
2. Taking Ukraine is not the same as holding it. The article notes that the Eastern provinces are not demographically identical to Crimea, i.e. there are numerous Ukrainian speakers in the Eastern provinces who likely would not appreciate a Russian takeover. At the least, Russia will have a minority population that is not happy with their new rulers. Do the Ukrainians dislike Russia enough to start a guerrila conflict in the countryside (e.g. sabotage)?
3. Casualties. So far, there have been very few, if any, Russian military people have been killed. I think that another article nearby on this blog says that most casualties have been Ukrainians on both sides. If Russia invades, it is possible that, as months pass, Russian occupying forces will be killed in a low level guerillas war. How will the Russian people react to that, especially when the deaths are among conscripts, not Spetsnaz forces?
4. Cost. What is the gas pipeline across Ukraine like, physically? If it is above ground, then I doubt that the Russians could protect every inch of it, especially in the countryside. Suppose Ukrainian resisters blow it up, in multiple places, and repeatedly? The point is the Russia cannot sell the gas to Western Europe and get paid for what they can't deliver. As I understand it, the Russian Government is largely (not exclusively) dependent on revenue from gas sales. This could create financial problems for Putin's state. If Putin's state show any weakness, what will his own oligarchs do?