Is A U.S.-China War Possibe?

A U.S. sailor directs an F/A-18F Super Hornet on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush in the Persian Gulf, June 16, 2014. U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class Joshua K. Horton

History's Warning: A U.S.-China War Is Terrifyingly Possible -- Michael Vlahos, National Interest

The United States and Britain almost came to blows in 1861 over the Trent Affair. Yet, conflict was averted. What it says about the state of play between Beijing and Washington today—and for the chances of war—is striking.

Many Americans believe that the United States and China have entered a long-term strategic competition. The way we use “competition” in many ways resembles a literary trope. At the US Naval War College, for example, we teach several historical case studies explicitly built around this narrative: Where a “rising power” challenges the “hegemon,” and its aggressive bid only increases tensions that at some point lead to military conflict. This is the story as much with Athens and Sparta in classical Greece as with Britain and Germany in the early 20th century.

The limitation of such historical analogies is in how, perhaps unwittingly, they create for us expectations that only go in one direction. It might be more helpful to contrast America and China today with a strategic competition that did not lead to war. This sort of comparison encourages us to test our dynamics against similar forces within an historical situation that—however strategically alarming at the time—did not end in war. Is our situation similarly stable (at a deep level), or should we really be worried?

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My Comment: Are we repeating history? After reading the above article I have to wonder.