Extremists In Iraq Now Control The Country's Rivers -- New Scientist
Iraq has blazed its way back onto the world's front pages in the past 48 hours, with the seemingly sudden capture of the cities of Mosul and Tikrit by an extremist group. The group seems to be targeting the region's rivers: its main geostrategic vulnerability. It now controls the upper reaches of both the Tigris and Euphrates in Iraq.
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) considers itself the true government of a region stretching from Israel to Iraq. It has been among the rebels fighting Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, and controls the territory in eastern Syria around Deir al-Zour.
Despite the apparent suddenness, ISIS's assault on Iraq has been brewing for six months. Last January, ISIS started fighting its way from Syria down the Euphrates river into Iraq. In May it captured the town of Fallujah, the scene of bloody fighting during the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq. This week, ISIS captured Iraq's second-largest city Mosul, on the Tigris river, then advanced down the Tigris to the town of Tikrit, and beyond it to the Shiite holy town of Samarra. Both Samarra and Fallujah are within striking distance of the capital Baghdad.
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My Comment: If Iraq loses the Baiji oil refinery (110kn north of Baghdad) .... the electrical grid for Baghdad will then be threatened. Throw in the threat of ISIS now being able to cut off the water supplies to millions of Iraqis .... forget about electricity .... the survival of millions of Iraqis will then be at stake ... and all of this happening in the middle of summer.
As I said before, ISIS is at that point of changing from terror movement to official organization (government, military, etc) how it decides to do or not do this is key. Militarily speaking great gains made in a very short period of time can (and usually are) be lost just as quickly. All the gear that fell into their hands cannot just melt back into the population, they'll have to use it or lose it. The money is different. Though what is stopping the Maliki (recognized) government to simply issue new currency with difficult redemption rules.
ReplyDeleteThe oil: Same "to be or not to be" organization problem. To make the most of it there has to be someone to sell it and to buy from, much the problems of safe transport etc.
The water: It's a lot harder to use as a weapon than people think.
The electricity: This could use immediately in an effective way without a change in their usual tactics, but it can only be short term. Regaining control of this and the water will be priority one for opposing forces.
It's early and I'm scatter brained.
Here's what I think to watch for: Before this Iraq was a Shia dominated unspoken self paying ally of Iran. Now Iran's supply line to their Syrian allies and adventure is broken. With the fall of the oilfields Iran must pay the bill for the Shia Iraqi military and government and their adventure in Syria. Iran has no air shield in Iraq to prevent transit of Israeli planes to attack their nuke facilities. Iran needs to resolve these problems very quickly.
So yeah cooperate with the US. You air to ground on ISIS and a close Iraqi airspace by the US. Encourage the Kurds to take what they can. And insert actual Irani forces into Iraq with legitimacy. Not bad if they can pull it off.
All good points Iran's in it for the hall.
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