The Iraqi Government Seems Helpless to Stop ISIS’s New Caliphate -- Time
The Sunni militant group says it has created its own Islamic empire. Their hold is less than secure, but Iraq's government seems helpless
With the upload of an audio recording, radical Sunni militants on June 29 declared a new Islamic caliphate, a religious superstate, stretching from eastern Iraq to the Syrian city of Aleppo. The group formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria is now simply the Islamic State, dropping the names of the two countries whose sovereignty it doesn’t recognize.
After weeks of laying claim to Iraqi territory the group’s spokesman Abu Muhammad Al-Adnani said on Sunday that they have everything necessary to proclaim their state. The caliph—or leader——is Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Iraqi-born ISIS leader who appears to be giving Al-Qaeda chief, Ayman al-Zawahiri, a run for his money. “Listen to your leader and obey him,” said al-Adnani in the online statement. “Support your state, which grows continuously.”
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More News On Iraq's Civil War And The Establishment Of The "Islamic State"
Iraq crisis: Fighting in Tikrit after 'caliphate' declared -- BBC
As caliphate declared, Iraqi troops battle for Tikrit -- Reuters
Fighting continues in Tikrit after Isis declare ‘Caliphate’ -- Irish Times
ISIL Declares Islamic State in Iraq, Syria -- VOA
Al-Qaida splinter declares new Islamic caliphate -- AP
Iraq crisis: Isis declares its territories a new Islamic state with 'restoration of caliphate' in Middle East -- The Independent
Iraq militants announce new Islamic state -- Washington post
ISIL's declaration of Islamic state condemned -- USA Today
Iraqi MPs under pressure to nominate speaker -- The Guardian
Russian Jets and Experts Sent to Iraq to Aid Army -- NYT
Turkey Does Not Want 'Tattered and Divided' Iraq -- AP
Khamenei: Iraq War a Showdown Between Humanity and Barbarity -- Newsweek
This declaration is premature and thus a mistake. Until now, ISIS has played its military and propaganda cards pretty flawlessly. I think this declaration overplays their hand:
ReplyDelete1. ISIS has many allies within Iraq who share their opposition to the Shiite Government, such as the remnants of the Baathists and Sunni tribes. Those allies do not necessarily want a caliphate, or accept Baghdadi (sp?) as the self-proclaimed Caliph. The declaration emphasizes those divisions.
2. ISIS has many allies (both private donors and Governments) among Sunnis outside Iraq (e.g. Saudi Arabia) who share their opposition to the Shiite Government, and want to fight Iran. Those allies do not necessarily want a caliphate or accept Baghdadi as the Caliph. This declaration accentuates those divisions too.
3. Many Moslems believe that a Caliphate has Divine sanction. Given that belief, the Declaration just made it more difficult for ISIS to explain away any military reverses in future. Before the declaration, even if ISIS withdrew from Mosul, it could still claim victory from the weapons and money it seized. When Allah's caliphate retreats, the weapons and money don't look like a satisfying victory.
3. It is hard to see that ISIS strengthens its military position as a result of this declaration. Any Moslem youths already radicalized enough to join ISIS are already joining it. Less radicalized Moslem youth do not seem more likely to join now that the caliphate has been declared.
4. Shiite Moslems reject the caliphate. I understand that the Maximum Ayatollah in Iran, Khamenei, has already condemned the declaration as mere subversion by Western intelligence services. The declaration only inflames Shiite opposition to ISIS, if that is possible. Now taking ISIS at their word that they want to slaughter all Shiites, the declaration makes their intention as clear as possible. But the declaration will stir up the Shiites to fight ISIS without mercy; it is unwise to arouse your enemies before you have military superiority.
5. Many Iraqi politicians are maneuvering for power. All of them will have their heads chopped off if ISIS conquers Iraq. The declaration will focus their minds and will make it more likely that they will agree on some sort of Government going forward. The declaration drives the Iraqi politicians together. This is not in ISIS' tactical interest.
For all these reasons, I think ISIS has made a mistake by declaring the caliphate now. Having said that, the declaration tells us something about the nature of ISIS: their religious and ideological imperatives trump all the foregoing considerations. We in the West are facing an enemy with whom no compromise is possible.
I love you last paragraph Publius .... and one that I am totally in agreement with.
ReplyDeleteYes, the last paragraph is in so many words saying that they (ISIS) are a captive of their own ideology, so they MUST do things, whether actually good or bad for themselves.
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