Will The Release Of Five Top Taliban Leaders Rekindle The Afghan Peace Talks?

Afghan security officers arrive at the scene after Taliban fighters stormed a government building in Jalalabad province, May 12, 2014. Credit: REUTERS/ Parwiz

The U.S.-Afghanistan Prisoner Swap Doesn’t Signal Peace On The Horizon -- Michael Kugelman, Time

The Taliban remains ideologically divided, and the Afghan government isn't necessarily prepared for talks.

Bowe Bergdahl, the last remaining U.S. POW in Afghanistan, has been released in exchange for five Taliban detainees held at Guantanamo.
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In past wars, the U.S. has had greater success recovering its POWs after the fighting has stopped, and after peace agreements have been signed. Many POWs from the Korean War returned home after the 1953 armistice. Nearly 600 from the Vietnam War were freed after the 1973 Paris Peace Accords ended that conflict. When American POWs have been recovered during wartime—and the U.S. is still very much at war in Afghanistan—it has typically happened through rescue missions, not negotiations. Recall the case of Jessica Lynch in Iraq.

Of course, in Afghanistan today, the circumstances are quite different. The U.S. has long viewed a prisoner swap with the Taliban as a prerequisite for, not a consequence of, a peace deal—a deal Washington fervently desires as it winds down its military involvement in a war that it couldn’t win on the battlefield.

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My Comment: I know that some in the White House and many in the media are now speculating that this prisoner exchange will lead to a rekindling of the Afghan - peace talks .... I say that is will lead to anything but. The Taliban have already called this as a great victory .... and are starting to pump out their propaganda videos. Even the top Taliban spokesman has come out and equivocally stated that the peace talks are useless .... and that the war will continue.My prediction .... this release has already galvanized the Taliban that they are winning, and they are going to escalate the war. Our Afghan allies are (in turn) justifiably upset .... they must feel abandoned to see the U.S. essentially returning the Taliban military leadership back to the fold of the Taliban. I expect more desertions from their ranks and a growing fear among many Afghans that the Taliban are now on the march to victory.

Update: A sign of things to come .... Taliban recruit young fighters as attacks rise ahead of Afghan vote -- Reuters