Ukrainian army tanks move past a checkpoint as they patrol the area near eastern Ukrainian town of Debaltseve August 3, 2014. Credit: REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
Ukraine’s Frontline Troops, Surrounded By Enemies -- Washington Post
KIEV, Ukraine — The calls home from the front line are very brief, often just two words conveying all that really matters.
“I’m alive,” Marina Bershadskaya’s little brother, Sergey, tells her. Then he hangs up to pass the communal cellphone to one of his fellow paratroopers in the 79th Airborne Brigade deployed to Ukraine’s border with Russia.
It has been this way for almost three months, especially in the past few weeks, amid a major Ukrainian offensive against pro-Russian rebels in the east. Even as each day brings new Ukrainian gains and the map of rebel-held territory shrinks, the calls have seeded a gnawing fear in the families of troops positioned in the thin, treacherous buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia in the rebel strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk.
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My Comment: This is what a personal family friend who is also a member of the Ukrainian parliament told me about two weeks ago ....
.... The fighting is extremely intense on the front lines in eastern Ukraine. Even in the "liberated zones" .... Ukrainian soldiers never venture out alone. And when they move out it is always in large groups and/or in convoys .... but even then snipers and IEDs are being used to deadly effect. Air support is now minimal .... too many planes and helicopters have been shot down. Supplies are a problem .... and it seems that they never have enough ammo. The casualty rates are higher than what is being publicly announced .... especially the wounded. Morale is good and bad .... it apparently depends on where you are deployed and who are your commanders. Russian Ukrainians in the military have shown a reluctance to to participate in the fight .... and their loyalty is always being questioned. There is little if any public support in eastern Ukraine for the Ukrainian military .... and while Ukrainian Russians are critical of the rebels, most of them blame Kiev for their misery and want their soldiers out. He does not see the conflict ending even when the rebel strongholds have fallen .... what he sees (and predicts) is a long occupation and growing resentment among the population on their presence.
His worries and concerns are not surprising. He has a son who is going to turn 18 in a few months, and he will be eligible for the draft. I have also noticed in recent news reports that he and his fellow parliamentarians are becoming more vocal in their opposition to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's war goals objectives .... to the point that they are now being accused of being a "fifth column". Bottom line .... tensions are rising in Kiev, and as long as this war drags on .... these tensions are going to rise even more.
1.
ReplyDeleteHow is life in some of the liberated cities. Some sources like this one:http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/08/02/world/europe/a-test-for-ukraine-in-slovyansk-city-retaken-from-pro-russian-rebels.html?referrer=&_r=0 says that most of the people have turned away from seperatism and are begining to get pro-Ukrainian, is this a minority or is this the mayority of the civilians pro-Russians or did most of the pro-Russians evacuade when Sloviansk was "liberated?
2.
One news article i found in a Norwegian forum on the seperatists:http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/ukrainian-rebels-aren-t-ukrainian-or-rebels/504197.html its in english. He thinks the mayority of the pro-Russians are either Russians or mercaneries. How much is Russia supporting the pro-russians? I know the pro-Russian leadership are mostly from Russia but there are several leaders from small movments who are Ukrainian or is most of the Russian?
3.
This is a rather special article:http://www.blackseanews.net/en/read/84391#.U93WVaDsxtx.twitter i found. Will this work for Kiev? Since i think if they try to blockade Crimea Russia can threaten with full out war or destroy the naval blockade with military power. Are there any risk Poroshenko will try this to get back Crimea or is it empty words? I think this are empty words but i dont know Poroshenko and dont know any Ukrainians so i am not sure if they would risk so much for re annexing Crimea?
4.
Will Moscow allow Kiev to retake Donetsk and Lugansk or will they let Kiev retake the cities?
5.
If Donetsk get sieged will the Ukrainian army try to storm the city or wait it out and hope the pro-Russians retreat and give up? If they try to wait it out how long can the pro-Russians endure a siege or is it inevitably that the army must storm Donetsk?
6.
Will Russia increase military suport or try to get a no fly zone?
7.
If the pro-Russians lose what will Moscows tactic be? Since they have supported this rebelion and have taken sanctions, will they just give up or will Putin go all in on Ukraine if defeat is near for the Pro-Russians?
8.
Does the Ukrainian army has the soldiers and money to continue the ATO?
9.
How mutch sabotage and teror operations are it in Eastern Ukraine? Are there many guerillias?
10.
Can Ukraine still be divided or will Kiev hold it together? Remember one of your posts in June-May that you said that the conflict cant be solved with negotiations and that new borders will be drawn? Is this still the case since will the Donbass people still rebel if the city is ocupated by the Ukrainian army? And when you refer the the northern ireland trubles did the coutry get divided or how did that conflict work? Is it the same case with Ukraine?
1) On Ukraine media they are showing wide spread for Ukrainian military forces in the liberated cities and towns. On social media .... especially in the areas that have had their electricity and communications .... they are saying something else .... in short .... most want these soldiers out.
ReplyDeleteMost of the rebels are locals .... and when the tanks rolled in many of these fighters either went into the woods, traveled to Donetsk or Lugansk, or put on their civilian clothes and melted in with their neighbors.
2) Russia is giving a lot of support .... but much of the fighting is still Ukrainian on Ukrainian .... albeit with one side that is predominantly Russian in culture and language.
3) Crimea is not going to be returned to Ukraine .... definitely not in my lifetime.
4) What will Russia do next if Kiev retake Donetsk and Lugansk.... that is a good question of which I do not know the answer.
5) The Ukraine army is going to launch an all-out assault on Donetsk, and if it fails the fight for this city is going to end up being a siege .... and one that may last through the winter.
6) They are increasing their military support right now.
7) The rebel army is already preparing for guerrilla warfare. Russia will support this as well as putting economic pressure (no natural gas) on Kiev.
8) No.
9) Are they many guerrillas? To give you a perspective .... The IRA only had about 300 active fighters in their war against the British ... but those 300 effectively tied down a quarter of the British army for years. The rebels number about 10,000 active fighters plus the active support of about 2 - 3 million civilians in a population of about 6-7 million.
10) I actually said that the conflict in Ukraine is rapidly approaching a situation where the necessary political compromises will no longer be enough .... that too much blood has been shed and the rebels will only accept unconditional independence. I still believe that if the right political compromises are made .... Ukraine will remain united .... but it is also true that as time goes on and the fighting escalates .... my hopes of such an agreement are diminishing. And if Donestk is stormed .... political talks will be dead for a long time. But in the end .... an agreement will have to be ironed out one day .... whether it is this month or ten years from now .... a political compromise will have to be worked out. As for comparing eastern Ukraine to Ireland .... Ireland did get it's independence but the troubles in the north (Northern Ireland) are still continuing.