Ukrainian servicemen ride in an armoured vehicle near Kramatorsk September 2, 2014. Credit: REUTERS/Gleb Garanich
Guest Post: How Can You Tell Whether Russia Has Invaded Ukraine? -- Zero Hedge/Dmitry Orlov via ClubOrlov blog
Last Thursday the Ukrainian government, echoed by NATO spokesmen, declared that the the Russian military is now operating within Ukraine's borders. Well, maybe it is and maybe it isn't; what do you know? They said the same thing before, most recently on August 13, and then on August 17, each time with either no evidence or fake evidence. But let's give them the benefit of the doubt.
You be the judge. I put together this helpful list of top ten telltale signs that will allow you to determine whether indeed Russia invaded Ukraine last Thursday, or whether Thursday's announcement is yet another confabulation. (Credit to Roman Kretsul).
Because if Russia invaded on Thursday morning, this is what the situation on the ground would look like by Saturday afternoon.
Read more ....
My Comment: This use of Russian force .... especially at this level .... is not going to happen. But it is still a good list.
Update: Pro-Russian Rebels Brag Kiev Is Next -- Daily Beast
WNU'
ReplyDeleteI'm hearing reports Kiev has caved to a cease fire. Just reports, but my feeling that Kiev would throw in the towel this week might come true.
My guess is, as all my ideas are, Kiev has figured out they are on their own and had better get as good a deal now as they can. There will be window dressing (token US Nato military aid, presence) from the West, but that's it. Now it will be Moscow and East Ukraine moves to set up some kind of political structure.
I know that you mentioned a little while back that Kiev will capitulate by September .... and I said to myself .... no way. But now .... I am hearing from my multiple sources that this is exactly what they may do.
ReplyDeleteThe Russian intervention of about 1,000 soldiers, and the use of pinpoint artillery strikes has changed the dynamics of the conflict completely. I have also heard .... not reported yet .... the Ukrainian military casualties are through the roof. That in the past week alone Ukraine lost almost 500 soldiers, thousand plus wounded, and about 1,000 soldiers captured/deserted.
This is the boasting of a bully, who thinks nobody will dare to oppose him, but also forgets that the world is bigger than the school-yard, which he "rules". This is the self-delusion of someone, who imagines, that USSR has risen from the grave and is once again the biggest military threat in the world.
ReplyDeleteIt's also the ravings of someone drunk on jingoism and propaganda, who is about to get a nasty hangover, when they start to sober up to the realization, that unlike 10 years ago Russia is now surrounded not by friends, but by sworn enemies, which Putin made by invading his neighbors, and that these same neighbors now dare to defy Russia, even as many Russians enjoy dreaming about crushing them for the "insolence" to demand true sovereignty and freedom from Kremlin's interference.
What makes Russia weak is not only its lack of a globally-appealing doctrine, but also the widespread corruption and inefficiency. Other than the few dozen thousand elite troops Russian army is a small-scale reincarnation of the Soviet army, with wide-spread dedovschina (abuse of junior ranks by higher ranks and those, who have been longer in the service), drunkenness, drug-abuse, ignorance, and all the other things, which make troops undependable. To imagine that this army is an unstoppable behemoth, which could crush any and all of Russia's neighbors in a matter of hours or days, is hubris, which will be paid for dearly.
Instant total victory? People streaming back to recolonize New-Russia? Immediate start of full reconstruction of the war damage? What is this guy smoking?
ReplyDeleteIf Putin was capable of any of this abroad then why is Russia the way that it is now?