A rally for greater autonomy in Donetsk, located in eastern Ukraine. Russian flags wave in the background.
Is Russia Winning Ukraine 'War'? -- Kenneth Rapoza, Forbes
There is more chatter out of Eastern Ukraine that suggests Kiev might be willing to give in to the separatists’ demands of regional autonomy. Ending the civil unrest is high on the new Ukrainian government’s to do list. But giving greater autonomy to a region that is nearly 50% ethnic Russians is worrisome. The last autonomous region in Ukraine, the Crimean peninsula, was annexed by Russia on March 17, 24 hours after Crimean voters chose to secede.
In an interview with PBS Newshour’s Judy Woodruff recently, Moscow-based journalist Fred Weir summarized the key developments like this:
It appears that the Ukrainian armed forces overextended themselves. They surrounded the two rebel capitals. And the rebels did give up a lot of territory. Turns out they were kind of enticing the Ukrainians into a trap. And they appear to have encircled several concentrations of Ukrainian forces. They have apparently taken 700 prisoners just in the last few days. So, at the moment, in that area — that is the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk — the rebels clearly have the upper hand. They are on the offensive, and Kiev forces are retreating. It doesn’t mean that they’re going to march on Kiev any time soon, but they certainly seem to have reversed their fortunes. And they may now be in a very, very strong position to bargain for some kind of autonomy or even independence.”
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My Comment: The need for a negotiated settlement in which the eastern part of the country gets a certain degree of autonomy is something that I have been saying is necessary since day one of this civil war. Kenneth Rapoza is saying the same thing in the above analysis .... I would also say that he is probably correct that a great deal of more fighting and sanctions will need to run it's course before such a diplomatic agreement is reached.
Update: This analysis from the AP is spot-on .... Putin digs in for long Ukraine fight (Vladimir Isachenkov, AP).
Putin pulled a victory rabbit out of the hat for his pro-Russian flunkies who lost the war only to be rescued by a few 1000 Russian soldiers "on vacation." He now pushes for negotiations by the gains on the ground. He does not want to invade all of Ukraine. Why? Even Putin can do the math that the costs outweigh the gains.
ReplyDeleteIf Ukraine had the capability, they should call his bluff. They don't and NATO's unimpressive 4,000 soldier unit is neither politically nor militarily ready.
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