WNU Editor: For a ceasefire to take hold .... the rebels will need to be a party to any agreement. They were not in this case .... and they are reacting as expected .... Ukraine president says he and Putin agree on steps to a cease-fire … but rebels unimpressed (National Post/AP)
My prediction .... we are still a long way from an effective ceasefire taking place .... but we are going in the right direction (I hope).
Update: DPR Deputy PM: Poroshenko Did Not Agree Ceasefire With Donetsk -- RIA Novosti
8 comments:
It's like amateur hour in international diplomacy. Can't Poroshenko even get straight what the result of his conversation was? Putin insists Russia is not a party, and Poroshenko won't speak to the DRP/LPR leaders. How is an cease-fire possible in that case? Meanwhile people are dying. What a farce.
I agree Black Knight. There are too many conflicting stories coming out of the Ukrainian President's office. This is probably the reason why (I am speculating here) .... I was told this morning by a friend of mine who is a deputy in the Ukrainian parliament that everyone went into shock this morning when they heard the latest casualty reports from the conflict. In short .... it was a disaster .... and the politicians .... including Ukrainian President Poroshenko .... looked instinctively and immediately for a way out.
The fact that they ever thought there was a military solution to this problem is simply absurd. Kiev had no endgame from the start. After the first piece moved they were in checkmate, and they never knew it. Bizarre.
Since the start of this conflict .... I have lost count on how many times I have turned blue in the face telling everyone that political compromises and accommodations will need to be reached ... but no one listened.
What does not help .... and I hate to admit it .... but among Russians/Ukrainians there is a stubborn streak in our personality/culture mindset when it comes to dealing amongst ourselves. Conflict is the default position ... when it should be the opposite.
Why should the separatists agree now? In their view they are winning and winning big, so why stop, would be their first thought.
Even AP is admitting in today's news reports that the Ukraine Army has been routed, and that scores of Ukrainian militia units have either been killed or captured. So from the rebel point of view .... why seek a political solution when maybe a military one is possible. But I think (and hope) that saner heads will prevail .... and take the opportunity NOW to seek a political solution that will give them what they have always wanted .... autonomy but within a Ukrainian federation.
WNu-I think they want "Novorussia" independent. They will probably keep fighting until they have the D and L oblasts secured and maybe a land corridor to Crimea. Thenit will be frozen conflict time. They can't take all Ukraine, which would be insane to try, and they can't stay part of the Ukraine either.
This is where the separatists disagree ... some want an independent state, others want to be a part of Russia, and others still want to be a part of Ukraine when it comes to passports, national economic policy, etc..
So who is in the majority .... my understanding is that most eastern Ukrainians want autonomy.
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