Image from Elias Kifle
Nile Water Wars? -- Robert Kaplan, Stratfor
In the 21st century, water could emerge as a more precious commodity than oil. As populations rise, albeit at a slower rate than in the previous century, water becomes a more valuable and critical resource. This is especially true if certain models of climate change portend drought here and there. Wars may not occur because of water; but water, nevertheless, can emerge as both a more important factor and a constraint in geopolitics. A telling example of this has been the increasing tension in the last few years between Egypt and Ethiopia over the use of the Nile River.
These are two highly populous and poor countries we are talking about. Ethiopia has 92 million people and Egypt 81 million. Egypt is a downstream country dependent on the flow of the White Nile from Uganda, South Sudan and Sudan, and on the flow of the Blue Nile from Ethiopia and Sudan. The White and Blue Niles meet outside the Sudanese capital of Khartoum. But there is a great imbalance here: 85 percent of the water of the Nile flowing into Egypt comes from the faster moving Blue Nile in Ethiopia. And Ethiopia, with help from China, is in the process of building a massive hydropower project in its northwest near Sudan, the Grand Renaissance Dam.
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My Comment: This blog has been covering this growing dispute between Egypt and it's southern neighbors over how to use the Nile for the past few years ....
Will Ethiopia's Nile Dam Project Result In War With Egypt? (July 16, 2013)
Egypt - Ethiopia Tensions Rise Over River Nile Treaty (June 13, 2013)
Egypt Warns Ethiopia That All Options Are On the Table Over Blue Nile Dam Project (June 11, 2013)
Egypt And Sudan Are Concerned That Ethiopia's Dam Projects Will Affect The Nile River's Water Flow (May 29, 2013)
Egypt Is Prepared To Go To War Against Ethiopia Over The Nile (October 21, 2012)
Ethiopian Prime Minister Warns Of War Over Control Of The River Nile (November 25, 2010)
Can this dispute erupt into war? This is an easy prediction .... if Ethiopia diverts the water from the Nile .... Egypt will need to react .... and they will got to war.
Mexico and the U.S. have agreements about the usage of the Colorado River.
ReplyDeleteThere must be precedent and perhaps accepted international law about how much water people can divert for each section of river.
If Egypt attacked, Ethiopia would have to withdraw troops from Somalia and unless Kenya or other African Union nations picked up the slack things could go south in a hurry. No great powers of prediction there.
Eritrea would probably side with Egypt.