Can The Rebel Region In Eastern Ukraine Become An Independent And Functioning State?

This Rebel Region In East Ukraine Is Basically Functioning Like A State -- Max Seddon, Buzz Feed

Russia-backed rebels have organized elections for Sunday. Max Seddon reports from Donetsk, Ukraine, for BuzzFeed News.

DONETSK, Ukraine — More than half a year after armed men seized buildings across Ukraine’s two easternmost provinces and declared their intent to join Russia, rebels are facing a task they never planned for — becoming a fully fledged independent state, starting with elections set for Sunday. With Kiev’s central government and its Western allies powerless to stop them, the vote appears to underscore that the Donetsk People’s Republic is, for now, here to stay.

“These elections on Nov. 2 will be the breakthrough moment when our state becomes legitimate,” Alexander Zakharchenko, the republic’s leader, told a crowded student auditorium in Donetsk, the rebel and provincial capital, on Friday. “The people [in power] now, I’ll say honestly, just showed up — they were activists and fervent revolutionaries, but basically, they were self-appointed,” Zakharchenko said. “After Nov. 2 the government and the parliament will be responsible for their obligations.”

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Update: Ukraine: Donetsk votes for new reality in country that does not exist -- The Guardian

My Comment: A confession from this blogger .... I stayed away from covering yesterdays rebel elections in eastern Ukraine. The results of the election was going to surprise no-one .... and aside from Russian recognition .... no one in the international community was going to recognize it. But if yesterday's results are any indication .... it appears that many in eastern Ukraine now want to break-away from Ukraine .... they want to be an independent state and/or in some form of union of Russia. But wanting something .... and actually having it .... are two separate things. In the case of eastern Ukraine .... the region's infrastructure and economy has completely imploded .... and any hope of having a functional and viable independent state is going to take awhile. And while many are dreaming of that independent state .... I suspect that most of the people in this region are more focused on the looming approach of winter, and that tough times are now going to get worse .... Ukrainians in the Battered East Scramble in Darkness as Winter Nears (New York Times).

No money. No jobs. No prospects. No infrastructure. No investment. Little if any aid from Russia. No future. Not a bright future for a "new country".

But my prediction on what will happen in this conflict still holds .... absent any form of talks and/or reconciliation .... the civil war will continue. But the dye has already been cast .... this region of Ukraine will gain some form of special status/autonomy/ and-or independence in the future. It may happen next year, the following year .... or far in the future .... but it will happen. The question that needs to be answered is when will Ukraine accept this inevitable outcome .... and how will they negotiate a face-saving agreement that both sides can agree to. After that .... it took this region 2 decades and billions in Soviet aid to rebound after what the Nazis did in the Second World War .... in today's scenario .... the billions in aid will not be there but the region will bounce back .... it has enormous shale resources that can be developed for everyone's benefit, and they have the patience (and history) to rebuild .... again.