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Here is one of the updates posted in Radio free europe, free liberty: http://www.rferl.org/contentlive/liveblog/25416257.html 10:57, Kiev time, today 01.11.2014
A depressing take/update from a friend of "The Economist's" Edward Lucas.
a savvy friend who knows Ukraine well just sent me this Security Situation
The capacity of Ukrainian security forces has become limited (especially in smaller cities). There may be trouble policing organized crime, political groups and demonstrations over coming months. There has been an increase in criminal activity and fewer police foot patrols. Putin has no interest in peace deal, will continue to send troops to the Donetsk and Luhansk as required, may look to Riga for next destabilization - also to test NATO. Equally he may look to Kharkiv, given considerable apparent support for the opposition/former PoR there during the elections Ukrainian anti-corruption laws so far have been ineffectual ("propaganda") - military procurement has been corrupt and ineffective, medical procurement for the health service ineffective and failing since the spring The post-revolution Prosecutor General Magnitsky (from the Svoboda party), made $300 million in bribes while in office There is no more tolerance for corruption in Ukrainian society, if it is not dealt with very soon, there will be another revolution. People won't even demonstrate on Maidan, they will just move straight to occupation of government buildings, and use of violence Possibility of Russian terror attacks in Ukraine in post electoral period in order to destabilize the situation, and play on domestic instability
Oligarchs A few days before the elections, we discussed the candidate funding positions taken by oligarchs with a well-known Kiev-based academic. He suggested the following;
Poroshenko; self funded and backed by Kolomoisky. Lyashko; backed by Lyavochkin and Firtash. Yatseniuk; partly backed by Kolomoisky; Tymoshenko; self-funded. Hrytsenko - not supported by anyone and has little money (NB his party did not reach the 5% threshold and will not be in the Rada) Tygipko - Firtash and Kolomoisky. (Party did not reach the 5% threshold) Samopomich - funded by a number of small and medium-sized companies - a new "middle class" party. Opposition bloc (former PoR) - supported by Akhmetov Dimitri Yarosh/Praviy Sektor; funded and supported by Kolomoisky (NB, despite low showing for Praviy Sektor, Yarosh (rather incredibly) won in a single mandate constituency in Dnipropetrovsk - Kolomoisky's hometown.
International Election Observers Despite the initially positive headlines, the performance of just under 20% of District Electoral Commissions were judged as "bad" or "very bad" by OSCE ODIHR observers during tabulation of votes. This fits with historical patterns of electoral fraud in Ukraine, which usually takes place late in the process, at the higher levels of electoral administration during he tabulation of the vote - which means that it doesn't get reported in the Preliminary Reports by observer organizations. While elections in many parts of Ukraine were well run, the picture was less sanguine in Donetsk and Lugansk - where there was significant fraud. Also, a number of old faces were re-elected in Odessa and Trans-Carpathia (where four members of the same Family were elected to the Rada in single-mandate constituencies). The Russians provided a delegation of 20 observers for the OSCE ODIHR election observation mission. Many were diplomats, some apparently ex-military. This is interesting because they did not provide any observers for the Presidential polls in May, and their participation was an early sign that they would recognize the Parliamentary polls(which they duly did). Apparently they generally kept a low profile while observing on election day. Crimean Tartars Mustapha Dzemilev, widely respected former dissident and leader of the Crimean Tartars has come under pressure from the Russians to take a more conciliatory position towards them. His son has mental problems and was arrested for murder last year. After Crimea was annexed by Russia he was transferred to Moscow. Dzemilev has so far refused Russian approaches. Moreover, Dzemilev's health is not very good; he has recently undergone a heart bypass.
Russia Putin is disappointed at performance of Russian troops in Donetsk against Ukrainian volunteers. He wants to control Donetsk airport, so will continue to fight Putin sees the EU as lacking resolve on sanctions and thinks they will last about a year. He believes that he will be able to wait them out Yatseniuk has been ignoring Poroshenko as much as possible in pre-election period. Yatseniuk has backing of US/IMF & will enjoy their support after the elections
And the most important thing I also found is this: http://www.france24.com/en/20141031-ukraine-soldiers-government-were-coming-you-next/?aef_campaign_date=2014-10-31&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_linkname=editorial&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter
So if a half year goes without changes the risk of a military coups is high, since the veterans from the war and people in the voulenteer battalions are angry and upset of the lack of will to make changes, also the corruption is still there.
I have also read that there has been increasin battle activity today, is this a very bad sign? Since could there be a heat-up of the conflict tommorow, or do you think that is going to happen later? Also have you heard anything about Putin starting troubles in Riga? Since do you think "The Economist's" Edward Lucas, is a good source? Does Russia have any interests in Riga? Since he believe that Putin want to test NATO.
You are starting to take each person/organization and listing who they are, what they are, who are their friends, what do they possess (assets, liabilities, etc), what's their recent history.... so on. Also you're starting to simplify your writing, and you seem to be re reading and editing it somewhat before you post. A question for you, by doing this have things become apparent to you that would have missed before?
Yes , because it helps me map out the different "factions". The risk, which person in which faction and the ability to influence etc. Also the report I posted is not my work but froom radio free europe, I posted it since I think it is a very good status report where most things i the report can be confirmed. The only thing in the report I am suspicius of is that the person writing it thinks Putin will try to start provocations in Riga to test NATO. But I doubt it since why would he risk a conflict with NATO? Also what interests does Putin have in Riga? Are there many ethnic Russians there who are suppresed by the local goverment? Since I know that is a important factor for Putin to intervene if he choses to do so.
This is part one of my post
ReplyDeleteHere is one of the updates posted in Radio free europe, free liberty:
http://www.rferl.org/contentlive/liveblog/25416257.html 10:57, Kiev time, today 01.11.2014
A depressing take/update from a friend of "The Economist's" Edward Lucas.
a savvy friend who knows Ukraine well just sent me this
Security Situation
The capacity of Ukrainian security forces has become limited (especially in smaller cities). There may be trouble policing organized crime, political groups and demonstrations over coming months. There has been an increase in criminal activity and fewer police foot patrols.
Putin has no interest in peace deal, will continue to send troops to the Donetsk and Luhansk as required, may look to Riga for next destabilization - also to test NATO.
Equally he may look to Kharkiv, given considerable apparent support for the opposition/former PoR there during the elections
Ukrainian anti-corruption laws so far have been ineffectual ("propaganda") - military procurement has been corrupt and ineffective, medical procurement for the health service ineffective and failing since the spring
The post-revolution Prosecutor General Magnitsky (from the Svoboda party), made $300 million in bribes while in office
There is no more tolerance for corruption in Ukrainian society, if it is not dealt with very soon, there will be another revolution. People won't even demonstrate on Maidan, they will just move straight to occupation of government buildings, and use of violence
Possibility of Russian terror attacks in Ukraine in post electoral period in order to destabilize the situation, and play on domestic instability
Oligarchs
A few days before the elections, we discussed the candidate funding positions taken by oligarchs with a well-known Kiev-based academic. He suggested the following;
This is part two of my post
ReplyDeletePoroshenko; self funded and backed by Kolomoisky.
Lyashko; backed by Lyavochkin and Firtash.
Yatseniuk; partly backed by Kolomoisky;
Tymoshenko; self-funded.
Hrytsenko - not supported by anyone and has little money (NB his party did not reach the 5% threshold and will not be in the Rada)
Tygipko - Firtash and Kolomoisky. (Party did not reach the 5% threshold)
Samopomich - funded by a number of small and medium-sized companies - a new "middle class" party.
Opposition bloc (former PoR) - supported by Akhmetov
Dimitri Yarosh/Praviy Sektor; funded and supported by Kolomoisky (NB, despite low showing for Praviy Sektor, Yarosh (rather incredibly) won in a single mandate constituency in Dnipropetrovsk - Kolomoisky's hometown.
International Election Observers
Despite the initially positive headlines, the performance of just under 20% of District Electoral Commissions were judged as "bad" or "very bad" by OSCE ODIHR observers during tabulation of votes. This fits with historical patterns of electoral fraud in Ukraine, which usually takes place late in the process, at the higher levels of electoral administration during he tabulation of the vote - which means that it doesn't get reported in the Preliminary Reports by observer organizations.
While elections in many parts of Ukraine were well run, the picture was less sanguine in Donetsk and Lugansk - where there was significant fraud. Also, a number of old faces were re-elected in Odessa and Trans-Carpathia (where four members of the same Family were elected to the Rada in single-mandate constituencies).
The Russians provided a delegation of 20 observers for the OSCE ODIHR election observation mission. Many were diplomats, some apparently ex-military. This is interesting because they did not provide any observers for the Presidential polls in May, and their participation was an early sign that they would recognize the Parliamentary polls(which they duly did). Apparently they generally kept a low profile while observing on election day.
Crimean Tartars
Mustapha Dzemilev, widely respected former dissident and leader of the Crimean Tartars has come under pressure from the Russians to take a more conciliatory position towards them. His son has mental problems and was arrested for murder last year. After Crimea was annexed by Russia he was transferred to Moscow. Dzemilev has so far refused Russian approaches. Moreover, Dzemilev's health is not very good; he has recently undergone a heart bypass.
Russia
Putin is disappointed at performance of Russian troops in Donetsk against Ukrainian volunteers. He wants to control Donetsk airport, so will continue to fight
Putin sees the EU as lacking resolve on sanctions and thinks they will last about a year. He believes that he will be able to wait them out
Yatseniuk has been ignoring Poroshenko as much as possible in pre-election period. Yatseniuk has backing of US/IMF & will enjoy their support after the elections
And the most important thing I also found is this: http://www.france24.com/en/20141031-ukraine-soldiers-government-were-coming-you-next/?aef_campaign_date=2014-10-31&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_linkname=editorial&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter
So if a half year goes without changes the risk of a military coups is high, since the veterans from the war and people in the voulenteer battalions are angry and upset of the lack of will to make changes, also the corruption is still there.
I have also read that there has been increasin battle activity today, is this a very bad sign? Since could there be a heat-up of the conflict tommorow, or do you think that is going to happen later? Also have you heard anything about Putin starting troubles in Riga? Since do you think "The Economist's" Edward Lucas, is a good source? Does Russia have any interests in Riga? Since he believe that Putin want to test NATO.
Well Rhaegar,
ReplyDeleteIt looks like your thinking has become much more organized. Do you feel it's helped you when considering these situations?
Yes I think it`s helping me, just askin how do you see thatvi think more organized? It`s a bit hard for me to know if I do it.
ReplyDeleteYou are starting to take each person/organization and listing who they are, what they are, who are their friends, what do they possess (assets, liabilities, etc), what's their recent history.... so on. Also you're starting to simplify your writing, and you seem to be re reading and editing it somewhat before you post. A question for you, by doing this have things become apparent to you that would have missed before?
ReplyDeleteYes , because it helps me map out the different "factions". The risk, which person in which faction and the ability to influence etc. Also the report I posted is not my work but froom radio free europe, I posted it since I think it is a very good status report where most things i the report can be confirmed. The only thing in the report I am suspicius of is that the person writing it thinks Putin will try to start provocations in Riga to test NATO. But I doubt it since why would he risk a conflict with NATO? Also what interests does Putin have in Riga? Are there many ethnic Russians there who are suppresed by the local goverment? Since I know that is a important factor for Putin to intervene if he choses to do so.
Delete