Ukraine Crisis: Poroshenko Orders Troops To Key Cities -- BBC
Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko has ordered army reinforcements to key southern and eastern cities in case of a new rebel offensive.
Mr Poroshenko said the units were to protect Mariupol, Berdyansk, Kharkiv and the north of Luhansk region.
He spoke after meeting security chiefs in the wake of disputed polls in rebel-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk.
He said he was still committed to the current peace process but has proposed cancelling a key plank of the plan.
The peace process was laid out in a 5 September ceasefire deal agreed in Minsk, Belarus.
Read more ....
Update #1: Ukraine’s Poroshenko orders extra army units to protect cities from possible assault -- Reuters
Update #2: Ukraine rebel leaders sworn in, Kiev says peace plan violated -- Reuters
My Comment: Rumors have been circulating for the past few weeks that the Ukraine army will be launching a new offensive against the rebels in the east. Is this Presidential deployment order laying the groundwork and reason for such an offensive to happen? I have my doubts .... the Ukraine army is too weak and disorganized to launch any new offensive .... but the Ukraine army is being deployed, and I do know that there are many in Kiev who do want to see a resumption of a full scale civil war.
I agree, I think they are going to be placed there for defencive reasons, but who knows, I am unsure if Poroshenko wants war? Also it is possible that the separatists attack first, since now there are even more reports of huge troop consetrations and movments near the Ukrainian border, where Russian troops are closing in again. What do you think is most likely of these 3 simplified scenarios:
ReplyDelete1. The separatists start a offensive against the Ukrainian troops.
2. The Ukraianian government eigther terminates the ceasfire and go to war or they just go to war.
3. The conlflict de escalates and there are no offensive now or in the winter time.
It would be very nice to get your opinion about this, I bet one eighter 1. or 2.
Rhaegar .... I have trouble seeing a resumption of major operations this winter. It is getting cold there .... and it is going to get even more colder in the next few weeks. The soldiers on both sides are not equipped for winter fighting. I expect asymmetrical warfare to continue .... and a steady flow of body bags back to Kiev for the next few months.
ReplyDeleteRhaegar,
ReplyDeletePerhaps a better question would be, Why would Porshenko want to go to war now? Give me three possible explanations. Think about it.
1. It could be because he now realise that Donetsk and Luhansk is in danger of permamently slipp away from Ukraine, because now the separatists have their own legimate goverment and army. So it could be a desperate move to keep eastern Ukraine unified
Delete2.
Pressure from eighter the Ukrainian nationalists (Svoboda, Right Sector etc) or Yatsenjuc and the other new members of the parliament who support avnew war in the east. So it could be that Poroshenko have too much "leverage" over him or that he is afraid of a coup and wants a war to calm the radicals.
3.
It also could be to try to get Russian involvment more "visible" to get more military and economic support from the west.
He has a gas deal for the winter,
ReplyDeleteThere is still popular support for the war, that may no longer exist after the privations of winter and the tender mercies of the IMF, when the mud finally dries out in late spring,
The Ukrainian Army has frantically rearmed and is probably in the best shape it will be in or several years,
The Ukraine Military Command has been studying Operation Storm, and the Georgian War, and believes a quick blitzkrieg, surrounding and cutting off Donetsk, would cause the collapse of the DPR and LPR with out incurring a Russian Military response.
Jay .... if Russia was not involved I would agree with your assessment that the temptation to launch a quick attack that would cut off the rebel regions would be the course of action that Kiev would follow. But I suspect that the Russian army is ready for such a possibility, and should a blitzkrieg occur Russian artillery units (within Russian itself) would quickly respond. They have proved to be devastating against Ukrainian army units in August, and I suspect they will be just as brutal in November.
ReplyDeleteThe Ukraine has been receiving political, military and intelligence advice since the day after Maiden. None of it good advice.
DeletePolitical, military and economic "promises" have been made, officially and unofficially, and rather than examine how those same promises worked out for Georgia, they seem to have been accepted at face value.
This may be the Ukraine's last "kick at the can", as by late spring, there will be little left of an IMF'd Ukraine with which to wage war.
From Crimea to the end of the ATO, every move the Ukraine has made has been boneheaded, wrong and counterproductive.
I don't expect them to start doing the " right thing", now.
I agree James .... I also do not expect them to start doing the "right thing" now.
ReplyDeleteWNU,
ReplyDeleteThat's Jay not me, getting in the wine a little early are we?
Jay, Rhaegar I'll have something later.
Ok good to get feedback :) also my answer is going to be a bit late since I normaly sleep on this time. In ca 5 hours I think, also thank you for asking questions and sharing your opinions with me. I am always interested to hear them.
DeleteAlright Rhaegar, JayFrom the top:
ReplyDeleteJay "he has a gas deal" yes he does, but what would make him think Putin wouldn't abrogate it instantly and turn off the gas?
Rhaegar: Yes, the separatists do have formal mils and govs, which have been unofficially recognized by Russia. wOULD retaking a region with a hostile population that has a major military ally nearby (who's show to have no hesitation to intervene) be worth the possibility of another major military defeat?
Jay:
The popular support of the West Ukraine is based on what? The election results, news reports? I'm not trying for argumentation here for I don't know the answer to that question, but it would be important to know what that is based on. Also if the Ukraine military has been re-armed, they are still out gunned and out manned with the Russians in the bushes. Most importantly they have been defeated once badly. That's hard to wipe away.
Rhaegar 2. You may be on to something with this. The election seemed to have strengthened the pro war/ right side faction, I would assume they are putting pressure on Poroshenko from within and without the government.
Jay: As far as a blitz by the Ukrainian forces what I said above would hold for this thought, plus a blitz to succeed especially in Ukraines current position must have a lot of secrecy. With the amount of Russian sympathizer in the Ukraine government and military I can't see this being kept secret.
Rhaegar: 3 That is some good thinking on your part, but the time for a PR campaign like that has passed. After past events risking a major military defeat just for good publicity would be very foolhardy.
Summation: You both could be quite right in your assumptions, I personally do not know. I would point out a few things as WNU has stated Russia is involved and has intervened and has shown no inclination not to do the very same thing again, this fact cannot be overstated in examining Poroshenko's motives. I do think there is pressure from internal factions as Rhaegar spoke of, but I also think there is considerable outside pressure (IMF, EU, and the US through NATO)as Jay has alluded to.
Now something else with the Ukrainian elections over and the rise of the right, Poroshenko has a big reliability problem with his armed forces (riddled with both rightists and pro russians) He may dispersing these units around the country to keep them from the seat of government and the temptation of a coup.
Here's my next question for you Rhaegar (and you too Jay if you desire). What will be the impact of the US elections with the shift of power from the Democrats to the Republicans on the Ukrainian situation. I'm in a hurry so I must apoloized for the disorganized mess I've just posted.
Not in my eyes, but I am not sure of Poroshenko's situration, since it could be that he eigther thinks that the EU and US are going to suport him in a offensive or he is very afraid of a coup and are trying to sattify the radicals. But I hope he understands that the risk of a potential offensive and backs off, since I totaly agree with you that there are too many obvius problems for a new ATO in Eastern Ukraine, especialy now, because of Russian involvment and a hostile local population.
ReplyDeleteAnd to your question, I think the impact will eighter be small or it could lay the foundation of a massive change in the US way of handeling the Ukraian crisis, this is just guessing since I am not a US citizen and are not so familliar with the US parties. I see the Demorcats as the most "leftist" party and the most "peacfull" one and I think he Republicans are more capitalistic and are also in my eyes they have a more aggresive foreign policy. I may be wrong, but I base this on the news U have read about Bush and also other republican polticians. I am not sure if you are from the US James, but if you are it would be nice with feedback since I know very little about US poltics. Also it it right that the most neo conservatives are in the Republican Party, the nationalists are in the Tea Party and the "socialists" are in the Democrats Pary?