Why The U.S. Plan To Save Iraq Is Doomed To Fail

Iraqi security forces march on the outskirts of Najaf, south of Baghdad Nov. 19, 2014. REUTERS/Alaa Al-Marjani

Sunni vs. Shi’ite: Why The U.S. Plan To Save Iraq Is Doomed To Fail -- Peter Van Buren, Reuters

If the United States was looking for the surest way to lose Iraq War 3.0, it might start by retraining the failed Iraqi Army to send north — alongside ruthless Shi’ite militias — into Sunni-majority territory and hope that the Sunnis will welcome them with open arms, throwing out the evil Islamic State.

Maybe it’s time for a better plan.

And the way to find one is by understanding how we lost Iraq War 2.0. We need a plan to create a stable, tri-state solution to the Sunni-Shi’ite-Kurd divide, or the current war will fail as surely as the previous one.

A critical first step is, of course, to remove Islamic State from the equation, but not how the Obama administration envisions. The way to drive Islamic State out of Iraq is to remove the reason Islamic State has been able to remain in Iraq: as a protector of the Sunnis. In Iraq War 2.0, the Iraqi Sunnis never melded politically with al Qaeda; they allied out of expediency, against the Shi’ite militias and the Shi’ite central government. The same situation applies to Islamic State, the new al Qaeda in Iraq.

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My Comment: A depressing read .... and the proposals that Peter Van Buren is proposing in the above commentary .... a proposed federal partition of Iraq along the Bosnian model in a manner that 2006 then-Senator Joe Biden had suggested .... is simply not going to happen. What can change the dynamics of Iraq is a massive U.S. military presence .... but that is also something that is definitely not going to happen.