Analysis: U.S. Troops Will Remian In Afghanistan Beyond 2016

U.S. Marines prepare to board a plane at the end of operations for U.S. Marines and British combat troops in Helmand, October 26, 2014. REUTERS/Omar Sobhani

Prediction: Obama Will Decide To Keep U.S. Troops In Afghanistan Beyond 2016 -- Michael O'Hanlon, Reuters

In 2015, I predict that President Barack Obama will rethink his plan to have all operational U.S. combat forces out of Afghanistan by the end of 2016.

That goal was announced in spring 2014. It fit in the context of Obama’s longstanding goals, laid out in his 2012 reelection campaign, to end both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars on his watch.

At this point, however, it is clear that the war in Iraq continues, with a renewed (if modest) U.S. role. The related Syria conflict will almost surely require greater U.S. efforts in 2015 and beyond. So Obama’s ambition to be remembered as a peace president who ended the nation’s wars no longer holds water.

The president needn’t worry too much about having to shift course, however. Everyone knows that presidents are not omnipotent, and that world events require changes in U.S. policy. While a healthy debate will surely continue over whether Obama mismanaged, and hurried, the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, that is now an historical debate.

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My Comment: This prediction/analysis is correct, and I will make one more .... President Obama will be ordering even more ground troops into Afghanistan to support the Kabul government and in the face of a resurgent Taliban.